Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

96.57

-0.44 (0.45%)

as of Sep 25, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

1173 watching

COMMENT

Will be a lot of volatility because they have locations in Libya and Syria. Ramping up their oil sands production and what worries her is the large amount of capital over costs to come as they are lumping some projects together.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 27/10. Up 34.25%.) Had a massive earnings revision and the stock dropped a lot but fundamentals still increased. Model price is $65.24, a 65% upside. If this comes back to the $35 level, it’s a gift.

WAIT

We are now at the end of seasonality for oil. Also, this company underperformed with their earnings. Broke its trend line. Would look to get back in at the $33 range where it has a strong base. Late July early August, oil tends to do well again.

BUY

Sell off has been confusing. Libyan situation is not immaterial to the company but accounts for less than 2% of the company’s assets and 4% of cash flow. Feels it has more to do with overall sentiment on oil stocks.

BUY

It should not have been a surprise in cutting their production forecast, as they aren’t getting anything from Libya. Good news is that it is an excellent entry point.

TOP PICK

Oil stocks have not followed the move in oil. Petrocan acquisition is going to prove to be a smarter acquisition than anyone realized. Well off from its highs and generating cash flow.

BUY

Has done quite well this year and has outperformed the sector as a whole. Had some operational issues last year in the oil sands but solved it as she expected. Strong operator. If you want to see it back up in the $50’s you’ll have to see a couple of things. 1) Volume growth which they are targeting to do. 2) High crude prices. If crude drops back to $80-$85, cash flow will suffer. She expects crude prices to stay above $90 for the next couple of years.

DON'T BUY

All large cap energy companies in North America ran out of gas several months ago not withstanding the price of oil. This company continues to have operating problems. Now that it owns PetroCanada, it is viewed as a quasi crown corporation. The marginal buyer is the American as Canadians are the major buyers and the American has a lot of other choices.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Apr 16/10, Up 27.72%) Thinks it is a core position. It becomes about the oil sands. Thinks you might see a slight pullback in energy in the fall or next couple of years.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 19/10. Up 23.82%.) Gives participation in the oil sands as well as upstream and downstream. Could be cash flowing well above $5 in the next couple of years. Still a Buy.

COMMENT

Hard for him to strip all the numbers out of it to get to the real value. Did well and participated with oil but was relatively cheap. Prefers Imperial Oil (IMO-T).

DON'T BUY

(A Top Pick Jan 11/10. Up 10.7 %.) Little concerned about markets until after possibly May-June when we find out what the Fed is going to do regarding quantitative easing. If they don’t, he would prefer to be defensive.

SELL

Had quite a good run and thinks it was primarily US money coming in. Have liked this in the past, but at these prices it is fully priced. A little concerned with higher oil prices as this is an integrated with refineries, which temporarily do well with higher gasoline prices but then margins get squeezed. Would look at a purer oil producer.

COMMENT

Suncor (SU-T) or Cdn Ntrl Res (CNQ-T)? Both have tar sands and conventional oil involvement. This one also has retail distribution plus some international assets. Refining and marketing have not been very good until now. Likes CNQ mix of assets better but this one would be better for the more conservative investor. CNQ would be for the investor looking for growth. (See comments under CNQ))

COMMENT

If oil prices drop, this stock will drop, but is likely to drop less than others. Trading at about 78% of NAV, which is lower than many of the other producers. They are very capital intensive so they could be buffeted by interest rate increases.

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Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)