Michael Decter South Bow Corp SOBO-N DON'T BUY Feb 18, 2025

Spinoff of TC Energy that owns oil pipeline assets. High dividend payer. Highly levered - will need to use free cash flow to pay down debt. Could take 2-3 years. Would recommend holding for dividends. Trading at high end of valuation range. 

Lots of pipelines, mostly US assets. Gives you diversification into US markets. Could be $40-50 a year from now. Pretty safe. Will probably hold above $34-35 over the next year. Good quality dividend yield of 7.5%.

He got shares from the spinoff, and now has to decide what to do. He hasn't had time to investigate thoroughly. A lot of their business is already contracted going forward, so revenues will be fairly consistent and predictable. Dividend should be stable. Not in a hurry to sell, and might even buy more.

He sold right after the split, as the growth assets and those with better potential were assigned to TRP. SOBO got the oil pipelines, which are great for an income-generating dividend, but no growth. Stock's done well, but don't buy here. Look at TRP.

Only real growth will be multiple expansion and what value people will give to the dividend. Owns 100% of Keystone, its key asset. High quality, very stable cashflows (~94% recurring). Pretty cheap PE. Yield proxy. Yield is 8-9%.

In a spin-off, look how the market treats the underlying investment, and SOBO is up 20-25%. He has increased his holding in this, but it isn't a core holding. SOBO (running a liquids pipeline) can offer exposure to the Keystone pipeline, which Trump says he wants to finish. Canada doesn't tend to double-up on pipelines (TC Energy and Enbridge already run pipelines. He'd wait and see on SOBO.

Entirely a liquids pipeline business. He likes it because there's no growth, so there's very little you can do with it. Management has nothing to spend $$ on, so it'll return cash to shareholders. Yield is 7-8%, reasonably well-covered by cashflows, should grow to some extent.

Quality company that is very safe. Dividend is excellent with strong assets and management. Would recommend holding for yield oriented investors. 

Likes the oil patch broadly speaking, and it's fairly low risk.