Stock price when the opinion was issued
The large Spanish banks are up 40-50% this year due to more tourism spending there, plus the bank's diversification across Latin American. They may leave the UK and its high taxes and laws. But the Spanish banks are 3x riskier than European ones, because the Spanish one's non-performing assets are 3% vs. the 1% average. Take this with a grain of salt. SAN is having a great year, but is coming off previous lows.
One of the larger banks in Europe, with an international footprint. In 6 months, there's been a sea change in sentiment on investing in Europe. Banks will reap the rewards of increased spending when we come out of this tumultuous time.
It's not that the gains aren't valid, but it's come a long way in a very short time. Will probably see a bit of a pullback, a bit rich now.
Probably a 10-year bull market in financial services in front of us. Global stocks underperformed for a long time, depending on where you're looking. When a market goes sideways for 10-15 years, and then makes a new high, that's the beginning of a new long-term bull market. Virtually every major global market is doing that right now. Global stocks are much cheaper than US stocks. USD is now falling against every major currency.
Great bank and digital banking platform, geographically diversified. Between 13-15% return on tangible equity. Great balance sheet. Trades at only 9x. Dividend grows nicely, buying back shares. Very good operators and allocators of capital. Global banks can be revalued compared to the rest of the world. Yield is 3.11%.
Looking at the 10-year bond market, we are getting a steeper yield curve, which is good for banks. There was a tremendous run in US bank shares, and that is starting to show up in international markets. Bank stocks have been very, very cheap and unloved. Regulation, in particular, has been swinging harder and harder towards banks, and is now starting to swing back. Earnings are starting to improve. This company has very big exposure to Latin America, but ultimately that should be a good thing. A very well-run bank, but trades at valuations that are close to where it was during the sovereign debt and the financial crisis.