Sherritt International Corp. (S.TO)

If you do an asset value, you get a vote $8 on it. He owns the fixed income on this. It is moving nicely. Nickel prices have finally rebounded this week. Ambatovy just achieved 90 and 90, meaning running at 90% capacity of the mine for 90 days. That is a big deal, and costs came down. If they can keep that going and costs come down a bit further, the stock probably goes into the mid-$3.

Bonds? He doesn’t own any thing in this company because of 1) the big Ambatovy mine in Madagascar took a little longer and the overall nickel market is terrible. 2.) He had owned their bonds because of their Saskatchewan assets, but once they sold off, it became a lot riskier. The underlying commodity has now sewered. For the bond, they have enough cash flow to do all right, but you need a recovery in the price of nickel.

Lots of difficulties. He did not come away from the AGM with their management. It could be a success but right now he is just too scared. They likely won’t go bankrupt but he does not have confidence in their management.

Nickel is necessary to make stainless steel. The problem is relatively weak demand and good supply. Nickel is fine and S-T would be a way to play it.

One of the big issues around nickel as a commodity is the export ban in Indonesia. They would like to have smelters built within the country for more value added revenue, rather than just exporting raw material. This has provided a bit of a support mechanism for nickel. This company is a very unique way to play the nickel side of the market. They sold their thermal coal royalty business, so really putting themselves in a more leveraged nickel business. Their Ambatovy mine in Madagascar is still in the ramp up stage, so there is still the sensitivity in ramp up risks. He sees good progress. With a couple more quarters of ramp up progress, with no negative surprises, this is something he might look at in the 4^th quarter going into a stronger market in 2016.

It will be interesting to see what the new rapprochement between Cuba and the US, will actually mean for this company over the next while. Not surprised the company has taken a bit of a hit since that announcement. Speculation might be that Freeport-McMoran (FCX-N) may want their property back, but he thinks that is a long ways from actually happening.

(A Top Pick Feb 24/14. Up 2.9%.) Sept 24, 2020, 7.5%. He still likes this. Did a great job of terming out their debt right before the meltdown.

His company has it with a sector outperform, but with a high level of risk. Target of $4 in 12 months. He hasn’t had any base metals for a while. Nickel prices are going to be in check because of the rise of the US$.

The world demand for nickel of this type has gotten really subdued. The key is how good their margins are going to be in Madagascar. He considers it interesting, but is not comfortable with the risk.

The stock has fallen, but not because the company is doing anything different. The mining space has been quite volatile. Especially with the oil price falling you see a lot of volatility in the mining space. They continue to ramp up their project in Madagascar and are set to produce a lot more nickel this year, which will drastically improve their earnings profile. Also, the partial lifting of sanctions to Cuba by the US is going to help them.

Kicked the tires on this one. Went to the AGM and management didn’t make him jump for joy. Doesn’t like the debt load. He is wary of it. Has a lot of potential upside, but there is a lot of danger.

The story around Cuba is a fascinating one, but he thinks this is a coal story as well. You have to have an expectation of what is going to happen to coal and what is going to happen in terms of natural gas. When you buy commodities, you buy them when they are on sale, and they are at the moment. If you have a long enough time frame, you’ll probably do okay.

This is a news event type of stock, which is being driven by 2 major things. First of all is the news from Cuba. They are the largest corporation that is dealing in Cuba right now. Has had a huge move this month percentage wise. It is also becoming a major nickel producer. Have had some problems getting their nickel mine up and running, which is why the stock continues to be under pressure. With the blip we have seen recently, the technicals are not that great. Thinks there are better opportunities over the next couple of months in other areas. If you own, consider taking some profits.

This company, like most of the industrial type companies, is trending down. As a technical analyst, he wouldn’t even look at the stock at this time. Until he sees the trend line broken and some sort of a base, there is no reason to own the stock when there are so many great looking charts out there which are actually doing what he wants them to do.

They have exposure in Cuba on one side, but then they have the big mine on the other side. He would not buy just on the change in political situation in Cuba.