
TSE:PPL
This is kind of a 2 edged sword. They have a nice dividend yield. Also, the stock has set back, pretty much to some good technical support from his perspective. Negatively, like all Canadian pipeline companies, it is selling at, or marginally above its FMV. Looking at the long historical sweep of the valuations, none of these pipeline companies are cheap. Because he thinks investors will continue to place a premium on income, the stock may well hold up. He would not initiate a position in this or any of the pipelines.
Has some commodity exposure: frack spread. But he thinks it is a very high quality business. There is still a significant cap x program for them to drive organic growth. When it slows down you will see more acquisitions for growth. There is great value here. It is just a matter of what you want to get exposure to. It is great value.
A really good company. In the last 5 years, it has been one of the best performing stocks in the country, and has done extremely well. Has done well in the last year because of momentum. There is a lot of momentum money run by a a lot of managers, who just look for stocks that are meeting or beating expectations. That is the caution with this stock. It was doing this for a long time and is now facing a pullback in the energy sector. Pipeline companies are much more stable than E&P companies, but they will pull back on sentiment with them. Feels there is more pullback to happen. Feels this is on its way to $30, so he would be a little bit cautious.
Has been hit very hard with the decline in crude prices. Have a lot of projects in their backlog, and those projects have long-term “take or pay” service agreements in place, so they are fairly protected. Even if crude oil prices drop, these projects are there and they have customers that have made commitments to make payments to them. This will become a much more defensive cash flow story. She doesn’t see this as being at risk for the next couple of years. Feels the dividend is safe.
Some of the servicing agencies have taken quite a beating. He can see people hitting the fracers and the drillers, etc., but the pipelines are gatherers, and transport both oil and gas liquids. They have an essential part in that whole transportation system, mainly in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This company has long-term contracts with big names. They have built up a backlog of projects that are coming on stream. Forecasts for EBITDA next year is up 19%. Dividend yield of 4.35%.
We are going through some unusually large price changes now. Longer term, these types of companies are mid streamers, so the way basins have been reconfigured for new technology, means we have to rebuild many parts of the infrastructure in North America. This company is participating in this huge build out in infrastructure. It will last for many years to come.
This has recently been one of the weaker performers in the group. Because of this, he has reduced his position substantially. In the long run, this is a great industry, because they are long life assets, with long contracts and very little commodity exposure. In the short term they can be impacted psychologically. If you own, consider trimming this or selling it.
If you don’t have the position right now and want to establish one, she would start with a half position, and then as energy kind of stabilizes, fill it up. Fairly confident in the cash flows because the projects they have in place are in long-term service agreements, so they are going to be paid regardless of what energy is doing. The concern would be if energy stayed low for a long period of time, so any potential additional projects that come on board beyond a 2 year time frame would start impacting their ability to grow their cash flow and their dividends.