PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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COMMENT

Likes this very much, but prefers Agrium (AGU-T) because its PE levels are significantly lower and it has diversification through its wholesale and retail chains selling farming products to farmers.

DON'T BUY

Fantastic company but it’s expensive at 15X next year’s earnings. Because it’s so unique it gets a premium valuation. Investing 101 says don’t pay more than 10X earnings for it.

BUY

Largest potash producer globally and has a good deal of influence on where prices are. Likes stocks in the agra business and growing food. An international commodity. This stock should do very well.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Feb 17/11, 3.05% premium) Short (naked Put)

DON'T BUY

Not a predictable stock. It does jump quite a bit so the earnings can have a big variation on the price. Seems to be holding level at the $50 to $60 level. Wait for a breakout. Agrium (AGU-T) looks a little better on the chart.

HOLD

Trading at its historic range of 16 to 18 times multiple so he would call it fair value. Positive on fertilizer/agriculture space. This year looks like another strong year for fertilizer.

BUY

Volatile stock. Spring doesn’t tend to be a great time for agriculture stocks because a lot of the plans have been made. Demand has been very solid and he expects good earnings. You should have some exposure to agriculture and this is a pretty good proxy for it.

BUY

People order fertilizer before the summer. Stock price had a big fall when fertilizer sales where down. That doesn’t seem to be the case this year because of the wet year last year and poorer sales.

WAIT

It’s a good trade. He paired it with a short of IPI-N He was going to sell after the season’s planting season is over. He would not be a buyer now. He would add in the fall.

BUY

Great space. You could buy it now with a stop at $50. He’d like to buy this in the near future.

HOLD

If you have a 2-3 year outlook, hold on to it. There is growing protein and food demands in the far east. Prefers AGU.

BUY

Has pulled back quite sharply in the last couple of days because of down grades in the US and because the US department of agriculture was weak. Prefers AGU, but you could buy Potash here.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

In agriculture he prefers Agrium (AGU-T), Alliance Grain Traders (AGT-T) and Viterra(VT-T). This one has had a nice run on the back of Potash prices going up. Food shortages in some parts of the world and fertilizer prices are rising.

DON'T BUY

Potash could be affected by transportation. It is a mineral where the largest cost is transportation. Worries that there could be a set back in potash prices. You are paying over 2.5X Book Value.

HOLD

Thinks potash prices are going to head higher. In the long run, a fantastic Hold. Seasonality, after the spring you can consider taking some profits.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)