Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

A note regarding shock events: Going back to the 1940's the average return after a shock event is up 7 1/2% 12 months later. She sees good growth with its powerful AI centres and increasing revenue. It is in the volatile tech space and trades at a premium of 60X earnings. It has long term contracts with revenue growth of 40% year over year. However she sees a downside price of 25% and there has been some insider selling.

At 205X earnings, the stock is vulnerable to sentiment swings, as we saw on Thursday with politicians worrying about it having 'too much power'. In a way, though, this exemplifies how well it has done, and its potential moat. It seems to have a better AI/data mousetrap, and can solve company and government problems effectively and cheaply. We admire what the company has done and its growth and its outlook potential. BUT....it has also become somewhat of a 'cult' stock. The CEO is brilliant, but also perhaps a little crazy (not necessary in a bad way!). Everyone loves it right now, but this is dangerous if the love affair goes the wrong way or a company problem develops. Even at half the valuation, it is still very expensive. So investors we think need to be prepared, as this is a stock that could decline 50%, pretty much overnight, on some bad news. We think sizing a position correctly to reflect this makes sense, and trimming into more declines to maintain a position, but also to manage risks. We do think it will be higher in five years: but it may be all over the map during that time.
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One of his most tech-savvy friends described PLTR to him: consulting with AI. Often takes data from multiple, disparate sources, pulls it together, and lets the analytics take over. Very cool YouTube videos :) 

There is no fundamental grounding for this stock whatsoever. It's a story stock, a cult stock. There are no valuation parameters to make sense of what you're paying for it. Astronomically expensive.

Well-run, and produces superior technology that pays for itself almost immediately. They have a strong defence business. Growth and margins are expanding. But shares trade at 220x earnings--ridiculously expensive. But traders don't care. PLTR is the most successful speculative stock. He targets $200, seriously. Take profits before you get hurt, because someone always does in a spec stock.

Well-run, and produces superior technology that pays for itself almost immediately. They have a strong defence business. Growth and margins are expanding. But shares trade at 220x earnings--ridiculously expensive. But traders don't care. PLTR is the most successful speculative stock. He targets $200, seriously. Take profits before you get hurt, because someone always does in a spec stock.

Loves it. Cutting edge and a leader in the defence space. But the valuation is too high (192x forward PE). He's been watching it a long time. He missed this completely.

Yes, their fundamentals are great, but the valuation is too high. Maybe will enter on a pullback.

He just bought it, even though its valuation is very high (192x forward PE). Earnings were fantastic. He likes what they're doing in the commercial side, up 70% YOY, and not just relying on government contracts. They have to grow into their high multiple and it is volatile.

Quite the high flyer. Valuation of 177x forward PE keeps him at bay. EPS forecast growth rate ~31%. Priced for perfection. Decent numbers at last report, guided higher, yet shares fell -- sign that investors are looking for results beyond perfection. Near all-time highs. Heavy reliance on large government contracts.

King of the hill in data analytics solutions, especially in AI agents. Likes it for trading options around. On Monday and Tuesday, he sold some puts tiered just under the strike price. He's looking to pick it up at a good price. If it does go lower, you can sell some calls on top of it. 

Has enough volatility that you can trade it. It is investable, too, but in the Trump era you need a stronger stomach.

Defence shouldn't be working, given the pullback from Ukraine, but maybe we are building up as tensions rise with China. Prefers PLTR in this space, perhaps the #1 meme stock with a CEO who whips people into a frenzy.

Previous high flyer, down 33% from recent highs. High beta and stretched valuation. 152x (yes, that's right) forward PE for 31% growth. Attracts a certain aura given that it's in AI and defense with inelastic demand.

He's cautious. Fast-growing software name in the fast-growing business intelligence space. Probably one of the most expensive names out there in its universe, as it's seeing huge inroads with government and industry. 

Half its business is government, and that's slowing outside the US due to moves by the US administration. Europe, for example, has been highly reliant on the US for defense. That's changing, as they try to repatriate a lot of those services.

Don't get in front of this side on the short side. Meme traders push this up in the morning before the market opens.

Look at the chart. The CEO went on TV and shot himself in the head; his comments spooked the market, feeling that the CEO is a loose canon. In terms of PR, Palantir is in the penalty box for a while.