Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Defence shouldn't be working, given the pullback from Ukraine, but maybe we are building up as tensions rise with China. Prefers PLTR in this space, perhaps the #1 meme stock with a CEO who whips people into a frenzy.

Previous high flyer, down 33% from recent highs. High beta and stretched valuation. 152x (yes, that's right) forward PE for 31% growth. Attracts a certain aura given that it's in AI and defense with inelastic demand.

He's cautious. Fast-growing software name in the fast-growing business intelligence space. Probably one of the most expensive names out there in its universe, as it's seeing huge inroads with government and industry. 

Half its business is government, and that's slowing outside the US due to moves by the US administration. Europe, for example, has been highly reliant on the US for defense. That's changing, as they try to repatriate a lot of those services.

Don't get in front of this side on the short side. Meme traders push this up in the morning before the market opens.

Look at the chart. The CEO went on TV and shot himself in the head; his comments spooked the market, feeling that the CEO is a loose canon. In terms of PR, Palantir is in the penalty box for a while.

Rolled over after Trump said defense was ripe for cost-cutting. You could pick it up here around $91, but probably won't go under $80. The place to go for data analytics. 

Down 10.5% today, but still up 10% for February, down because it's had a parabolic move. It needs big contracts to re-set the narrative.

Budget cuts at the Pentagon and their chief accountant quitting were headwings. Also, shares were parabolic and became expensive.

Stay away right now, stock's gone parabolic. Software services for US defense. Aligned with Trump allies, more defense spending, unique capabilities. Secretive on exactly what it does. Can't really sell its product globally.

Doesn't own high-PE tech names like this, and shares have run up so much. Maybe wait for a pull back to $90-100 to enter. In this case, he'd sell a put: sell the May $100 put for $8.85; this will generate nearly 9% over 3 months if the stock doesn't drop more than 12%. Can't recommend this. Then again, you can make money if this stock doesn't rise above current levels.

Great business. Recent results beat, high growth rates. Problem is how much you're paying for that. It's not that it's impossible for it to deliver the solid growth that would justify its valuation, now over 160x PE, but improbable.

Exciting, momentum stock. Trades ~60x revenue. Not the type of stock his firm would put clients in. Incredible success, but momentum is a behavioural aspect. It aligns with the "greater fool" theory. You buy it, hoping there's someone who will pay you a higher price for it -- a dangerous strategy.

It's a good and cutting-edge company, but priced for success way out in the future.

It reports Monday. Its volatile and outspoken CEO is messianic to its retail base. He targets $100, as shares have momentum now. PLTR is one of a handful of defense contractors; the defence department gaves WAY too much business to this handful.

His 12-month price target is $81, and today it's ~$79. Pretty evenly priced. If you own it, write some calls (2 week, not 1 week) against it, as analysts have price targets between $80-84 and there will be some resistance up there as people take profits.

King of data analytics. Total addressable market has exploded. If there was a correction, he'd buy in thirds at $76, $72, and $68.

Large spotlight on the company, which has created massive valuation run-up. However, believes company has enormous opportunity. Government demand for data analysis within the military very strong. Eventually the innovation within the military will eventually pass to the public - which will increase revenues. Is a good investment for the long term.