Pengrowth EnergyPGF.TOTOP PICKDec 23, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jan 09, 2020. Market Open.
The stock has bounced because of the higher oil price. It has sold assets to bring down debt, but debt is $600 million compared to an equity base of $1 billion, so it is still a bit high. At this point, they don’t have any key assets for sale. Their low production is 19,000 boe/day, which is this quarter. They will bring on more wells to bring production to 23,000 boe/day by the end of the year. Cash flow will be about $0.20 per year. His target for this year is $2 and $4.50 for the next 3-to-5 years. The company has a new CEO, with relevant (thermal oil) experience.
Has a higher debt load then he would normally buy into, but they have hedged 55% of their oil at $94 for the next few years. Hedged 50% of their gas at about 10% higher than what gas goes for now. Capital spending should go way down next year because the Lindberg project is pretty much up and running to some degree, and is supposed to be producing at a real capacity, something meaningful in the 1st quarter of 2015. Dividend of 12.63% is a high payout ratio, and it is possible it could get cut, but management says it is not going to happen. His target price is $15 and change.