NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

No comments on short-term moves, as he invests for the long term. Meets a number of his criteria. Founder-run, founder-owned. ROIC quite strong. Valuation of 62x PE leaves him on the sidelines. Fast-moving space. Share split has no effect on the stock's value.

Everyone knows that they're going to have a great quarter. $24.5-25B in revenue, which is 3x that of a year ago. People will be looking at the margins. Gross margins now are 76%, phenomenal. Most importantly, people will look at the guidance, and analyst interviews will be key as they look out to 2025. Will have to see what the competition has in store.

Trendlines are great, but you have to watch when things go parabolic. Stocks tend to consolidate after that. This stock likes to do these big jumps. Seasonal slowness for high beta is coming. Nothing bearish about the chart. When it catches up to the trendline and the 200-day MA, it will be a buying opportunity.

Icon of the market right now. People are scared to own because it's up 4-fold in the past year. Earnings are coming out soon. Others will enter this space and will encroach on its moat, but right now it's #1. A name to own, try to buy when it backs off.

Will probably double from here, over the next 2-3 years, before people start taking market share from them.

Sometimes he has to say that he missed something, rather than chasing something. If he buys it here, can he generate the kind of return he's looking for? With this one, there's too much risk for him. Management's been spectacular, earnings should be great, but will it match expectations?

New chip technology is allowing major breakthrough's in actions like robots throwing the baseball. Research is also expanding in areas across the board. Chip technology is fastest on the market (Microsoft can't compete). Technology of chips is moving at such a fast rate, perhaps not understandable. Recent market correction a good time to buy. 

Firing on all cylinders. Still expensive at 19x forward price to sales. Management keeps executing, earnings keep coming in stronger. AI is coming, and NVDA is at the forefront. He prefers AMD.

He has trimmed his position and taken profits but it is still delivering and at 30X earnings is OK considering the growth potential. There is big spending (billions) by Alphabet, Microsoft, etc. and Nvidia is still the dominant player.

Should be thankful it went down 15%. Poster child for AI revolution, and will remain so for at least the next 12-18 months. Such a franchise, leadership ahead of the competition in accelerator chips and packaging. 12-month price target of $975. One of the greatest secular stories in the whole semi business. Loves it.

He called Nvidia to peak on March 12, though it happened on March 8. He calls a bottom for May 13, followed by a brief relief rally. This is based on data of the Nasdaq's patterns stretching back 7 years of the "cycle forecast". So, sell not until mid-May, then you can buy back.

Difficult to determine direction of stock price. Very high quality company, but valuation is high. Chip demand is very high - A.I. demand not slowing down. Does not own stock at this time. Challenge is to determine position of company in 1-2 years (technology changing very quick). 

In two years we think the AI momentum will continue to fuel NVDA. In particular, we think AI spend should continue over this timeframe and NVDA should keep growing at a high rate. In five years, it is of course hard to predict: NVDA will likely continue to grow but the semiconductor industry is cyclical so from a demand perspective there could be a bit of a slowdown. When a company's growth 'decelerates' the stock can take a big hit. Over this timeframe it will depend how NVDA innovates as a company, as well as how the industry evolves. We would expect a higher price over two and five years, skewed though towards two. 
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Shares are correcting, though the company is fundamentally strong. The next report in May will be crucial with more pressure than ever to deliver earnings. Algo funds focus only on share price, so when it moves down like today, those algos accelerate selling.