
NASDAQ:NVDA
It's selling off today because those who got in during momentum and can't resist momentum any longer are selling it today. Those who come in last are the first to get out. They have no loyalty. It happened with meta after a disappointing report and sell-off; that's when he bought that. NVDA will offer the same opportunity, but the caution is that these semi stocks could weaken.
Other tech stocks like Meta are up today, so it's only Nvidia correcting, and it needed to correct after shooting so far, so fast, way above its moving averages. This quarter, tech earnings are supposed to rise 16%, but remove NVDA and it's 6%. Considering tech in 2000 as an historical measure, there will be a time when NVDA will have an earnings pause. Warning.
Very high stock valuation. Briefly became the largest company in the world. Owns shares and will continue to own. Company continues to execute well in chip business. A.I. will ensure demand for chips continues to rise. Would recommend buying anytime the shares pullback. Very profitable business that has major tailwinds.
He just trimmed it. His holding got too big. This stock is on steroids. He'll trim it again, because he's nervous about the risk/reward. It's his largest position. The price action has been kind of crazy. Too much of the AI boom has happened, stocks over their skies, though some stocks will grow into it, like Microsoft.
When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.
Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.
The largest holding in his fund at 8.7%. He's no longer even writing calls on this one, which means he's no longer hedging this particular position. Analysts' target is not too far away, but every time stock reaches the price target, analysts just nudge it up. Set up rolling stops.
He stress tests his positions every morning. The #1 risk used to be the supply side. Now it's demand, but their order book goes well into 2026, so it shouldn't be an issue.
A phenomenal business. Its rise is justified by its fundamentals. Trades at 40x forward PE, but it's insane how fast this business is growing. They've cornered the market in AI chips. His own concern is that NVDA's clients will eventually design their own chips for their specific purposes. Medium term, NVDA will face more competition. A risk is that it wouldn't take much for shares to slide; all it takes a quarter where growth is no longer 55% and re-rates to 40%. So shares slide by a third. It's tough--don't chase a stock, but NVDA is a phenomenal company. He's wary.
It's pulled back but not overpriced even trading at 40x, which is expensive for a semi stock. But its growth rate justifies that. The PEG ratio is 1.0. But we have 2-3 quarters before their growth rate falls off, when the inevitable happens, when customers get their orders and inventories filled. Not now. Now is a healthy consolidation for the stock, then it resumes its next leg higher. He won't trim it here, but in 2-3 quarters.