Mike Archibald Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T HOLD Jul 06, 2022

Long term, there's secular growth in the agriculture industry. Less arable land around the world, so farmers need more inputs for the land. Stock's fallen since 2022, 200-day MA has turned, and stock's below that. Commodity prices, such as for corn and soybeans, have fallen; not conducive to farmers spending on crops.

Commodities are super-cyclical, tend to move in 10-year cycles. Watch and wait for the turnaround.

Close to a bottom, but too early still before an upturn. Swing factor for earnings will be commodity price for potash, and he doesn't see this coming back to sustained supply/demand balance in the medium term. BHP's new production will add ~10% more supply, keeping prices under pressure.

Large cost advantage due to Canadian base in potash. Big issue is volatility in a cyclical stock because of pricing of potash and nitrogen, which fluctuates a lot. Supply/demand is out of balance all the time. Volatility outweighs the story. Supply coming on globally, especially with BHP.

As the world urbanizes, there's less farmland. This name will benefit as the population grows in the decades ahead. On the cheap side. Missing earnings. Correcting from the Covid runup. Likes the value here and the risk/return. One of his bigger positions.

Commodity index hasn't done well either, and NTR is somewhat correlated with that. Unperformed, but now forming a base. Not seeing a strong impetus for stock to increase. Commodities are taking a backseat to tech and growth.

Longer term, will be a fantastic play as fertilizer demand grows. But not now.

Weakness in potash prices, but demand starting to improve, especially in Brazil. Don't focus just on potash, remember its retail segment is the largest in the US with about 22% market share. Decent opportunity to add exposure.

Farming has not been great for investments so profits from fertilizer businesses are down. However the cycle could change. Don't buy today except if you want the dividend - wait for the turn which should allow it to run for a while.

Sounds counterintuitive, but WFG and trees are going to be beneficiaries. US still needs them, just going to pay higher prices.

GRT.UN is a good name. PKI works well here. Materials sector, with a name like NTR. 

There's even a part of the TSX that does well with a falling CAD, as earnings get amplified.

Does not own shares. Better options for commodity investors. Dividend is strong, but potash in abundance throughout the globe. Would prefer Teck Resources. 

World's largest ag-crop nutrient business. Vertically integrated. Believes prices for its input commodities have bottomed, supported by high and rising cash-crop prices. Farmers have to replace nutrients in soil, which was delayed while prices were so high. Trades at book value. Bounced off lows, but still sees upside. In his dividend growers mandate. Yield is 4%.