NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

68.11
-1.47 (2.11%)
as of Oct 1, 2026, 3:45:19 pm Market Open.
543 watching
0
COMMENT
If people don't mind watching commercials, then Netflix will soar. But his gut feeling is that people don't like commercials on Netflix, but he could be wrong.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly NFLX is introducing a new ad-based subscription tier that it expects will add subscribers and aid the bottom line. Recent earnings beat expectations and support a ROE of 30%. It has used some cash reserves to prudently retire debt. We recommend placing a stop loss at $200, looking to achieve $300 -- upside potential over 28%. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $298.58)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 25/22, Down 37%) One of his most embarrassing top picks ever. He misunderstood how competitive the streaming business would be, namely Apple+ and Prime, and overestimated how Netflix could raise rates without losing viewers--viewers actually are not and unsubscribed. Plus, there was a general decline in tech stocks. But now shares are worth buying. He target $400-450.
DON'T BUY
Their numbers last night were better than expected, but were still horrific. They lost a million subscribers last quarters. Sure, NFLX tried, but that's not enough. It drives him nuts that Wall Street still considers NFLX significant.
DON'T BUY
It reports Tuesday. He expects their shareholders call to shed light on an ad-supported service. The company says there's more growth in streamn, but there's more competition in streaming, and their growth is shrinking.
HOLD
At $185 heading into earnings next week, he doesn't expect a great quarter or good news about new subscribers. Has 221 million paying subscribers. A very weak number would be adding 1 million subs in the quarter. Let's say less than half of those are ad-supported customers. (Ads don't exist yet, but he expects it by year's end.) But 400,000 ad-paying subs would be meaningful. There's a huge market for Netflix to reach quarter after quarter. Re: the new Microsoft partnership: The market is puzzled, but MSFT is a neutral, non-combative tech company that other tech companies like to partner with. MSFT has what it takes to build this ad-supported platform. A lot of the risk has already come out of NFLX, so he's sticking with it.
SELL
In recent weeks, he has sold 80% of his Netflix shares. He finally got back to above water from a horrible purchase at $219 from collecting a lot of premiums, call sales against it. Freevee on Amazon US is category-killer. Netflix is not ready to get there as quickly as they need. Also, they need a sales force to execute the ad-supported business model. He doubts they are ready. He prefers to shift his money into Amazon, which he was buying yesterday at $102-103.
DON'T BUY
Stay away. Spending a lot of money building content. Got hit on subscriber growth. Earnings and cashflow aren't that strong. Instead, look at DIS. See his Top Picks.
COMMENT
Netflix was downgraded to a sell and $186 price target today by BOA and he agrees with it, unfortunately. Streaming is very competitive and the consumer around the world is watching their money. He misjudged the macro, which will effect how people will spend their money. He's not selling though he's under water. Can Netflix compete during this consumer "recession"--will consumers spend on Netflix, the more expensive streaming service?
HOLD
BOA downgraded NFLX to a sell today and their reasons were correct. Last quarter NFLX lost 200,000 subs which shocked the market and forecast it would lose another 2 million in the current quarter. He's sticking with it though, hard to value it.
DON'T BUY
Be careful when you look at earnings and cashflow. Cashflow is challenged. Don't just focus on earnings. He'd prefer DIS, with its diversification.
BUY
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks The world’s number-one streamer released its latest quarter on April 19 and it landed like a bomb. Shares tanked 25% the following day. IT came down to subscribers: a net loss of 200,000 in Q1 and a forecast of losing two millions subs in Q2. It was the first decline in subs since October 2011 and surprised the market. In fact, the company had projected an additional 2.5 million net subs in Q1. Netflix blamed rising competition, password sharing and the Russian war, though the street widely believes that the end of lockdowns is another big factor. Read Are tech stocks alive? for our full analysis.
DON'T BUY
Grew rapidly through Covid, as streaming became so important. Streaming is here to stay. Spends a lot of money building content, when the others don't have to. Competition has ramped up. Model for advertising is not attractive. Choose others in better financial shape and with more strings to their bows.
DON'T BUY
Has fallen from $659 in November to $166 today. You can say the stock has gotten cheaper compared to subscriber count, but will its business keep deteriorating? There's so much competition now. Can they innovate?
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