NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

65.04
-3.65 (5.31%)
as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 15/22, Up 19.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with NFLX is progressing well. To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop to $260 at this time.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 25/22, Down 16%) He underestimated how people would react to a price increase. Lost subscribers. Now offers ad-based service at a lower price. Very competitive environment. Pretty good buy at this price. Pretty good content.
TOP PICK
He just picked it up. CEO is amazing. Building up gaming side through acquisitions. Subscribers are coming down, but global numbers are still phenomenal. Plan for ads has given them a boost, $1 cheaper than DIS. Buy in thirds here at $306, 295, and 285. Price target of $375. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $295.71)
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 15/22, Up 24.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with NFLX has achieved its target at $300. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $200) to $225.
PARTIAL BUY
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks Consider PE. On New Year’s Eve 2020, Netflix shares hit $540.73 and traded at 99.79x. On October 19, 2022, shares changed hands at $272.38 and only at a 24.21x PE. That is a saner valuation that matches Apple‘s and even dwarfs Amazon‘s of 103x. Another tailwind: Netflix will crack down on password sharing by charging guilty parties an additional fee (something it has been testing in Latin America) which should enhance revenues. Read Are these 2 Tech Stock Bellwethers Still Alive? for our full analysis.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It was the second-best performer on the Nasdaq in Q3. He likes them. Shares plunged until the stock looked like roadkill, but yesterday they reported spectacular numbers and shares soared today. Their Q3 report highlights: 6% sales growth YOY, $472 million in free cash flow vs. $78m expected, Asian memberships were up 23%, and 1% increase in ARPU (8% without currency fluctuations). Netflix notes that its rivals burn through money to market and add memberships, and this is unsustainable. They will crack down on account sharing. They want the street to focus on earnings and no longer membership. After the debacle earlier this year, Netflix is clearly coming back. 2023 will look a lot better than 2022. That said, don't chase these shares. Wait for a pullback.
COMMENT
If people don't mind watching commercials, then Netflix will soar. But his gut feeling is that people don't like commercials on Netflix, but he could be wrong.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly NFLX is introducing a new ad-based subscription tier that it expects will add subscribers and aid the bottom line. Recent earnings beat expectations and support a ROE of 30%. It has used some cash reserves to prudently retire debt. We recommend placing a stop loss at $200, looking to achieve $300 -- upside potential over 28%. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $298.58)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 25/22, Down 37%) One of his most embarrassing top picks ever. He misunderstood how competitive the streaming business would be, namely Apple+ and Prime, and overestimated how Netflix could raise rates without losing viewers--viewers actually are not and unsubscribed. Plus, there was a general decline in tech stocks. But now shares are worth buying. He target $400-450.
DON'T BUY
Their numbers last night were better than expected, but were still horrific. They lost a million subscribers last quarters. Sure, NFLX tried, but that's not enough. It drives him nuts that Wall Street still considers NFLX significant.
DON'T BUY
It reports Tuesday. He expects their shareholders call to shed light on an ad-supported service. The company says there's more growth in streamn, but there's more competition in streaming, and their growth is shrinking.
HOLD
At $185 heading into earnings next week, he doesn't expect a great quarter or good news about new subscribers. Has 221 million paying subscribers. A very weak number would be adding 1 million subs in the quarter. Let's say less than half of those are ad-supported customers. (Ads don't exist yet, but he expects it by year's end.) But 400,000 ad-paying subs would be meaningful. There's a huge market for Netflix to reach quarter after quarter. Re: the new Microsoft partnership: The market is puzzled, but MSFT is a neutral, non-combative tech company that other tech companies like to partner with. MSFT has what it takes to build this ad-supported platform. A lot of the risk has already come out of NFLX, so he's sticking with it.
SELL
In recent weeks, he has sold 80% of his Netflix shares. He finally got back to above water from a horrible purchase at $219 from collecting a lot of premiums, call sales against it. Freevee on Amazon US is category-killer. Netflix is not ready to get there as quickly as they need. Also, they need a sales force to execute the ad-supported business model. He doubts they are ready. He prefers to shift his money into Amazon, which he was buying yesterday at $102-103.
DON'T BUY
Stay away. Spending a lot of money building content. Got hit on subscriber growth. Earnings and cashflow aren't that strong. Instead, look at DIS. See his Top Picks.
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