NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

65.04
-3.65 (5.31%)
as of Oct 21, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.
543 watching
0
COMMENT
Netflix was downgraded to a sell and $186 price target today by BOA and he agrees with it, unfortunately. Streaming is very competitive and the consumer around the world is watching their money. He misjudged the macro, which will effect how people will spend their money. He's not selling though he's under water. Can Netflix compete during this consumer "recession"--will consumers spend on Netflix, the more expensive streaming service?
HOLD
BOA downgraded NFLX to a sell today and their reasons were correct. Last quarter NFLX lost 200,000 subs which shocked the market and forecast it would lose another 2 million in the current quarter. He's sticking with it though, hard to value it.
DON'T BUY
Be careful when you look at earnings and cashflow. Cashflow is challenged. Don't just focus on earnings. He'd prefer DIS, with its diversification.
BUY
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks The world’s number-one streamer released its latest quarter on April 19 and it landed like a bomb. Shares tanked 25% the following day. IT came down to subscribers: a net loss of 200,000 in Q1 and a forecast of losing two millions subs in Q2. It was the first decline in subs since October 2011 and surprised the market. In fact, the company had projected an additional 2.5 million net subs in Q1. Netflix blamed rising competition, password sharing and the Russian war, though the street widely believes that the end of lockdowns is another big factor. Read Are tech stocks alive? for our full analysis.
DON'T BUY
Grew rapidly through Covid, as streaming became so important. Streaming is here to stay. Spends a lot of money building content, when the others don't have to. Competition has ramped up. Model for advertising is not attractive. Choose others in better financial shape and with more strings to their bows.
DON'T BUY
Has fallen from $659 in November to $166 today. You can say the stock has gotten cheaper compared to subscriber count, but will its business keep deteriorating? There's so much competition now. Can they innovate?
COMMENT
She's always net long, including many FAANGs, so the market now is painful. But the pendulum swing is accelerating. Netflix's PE has fallen to 15x. That is amazing, though there is room to fall further. The IGV has more room to decline, too. She's rather be long the FAANGs and short IGV. She would love to buy Lulu, down $150, though still not cheap because its PE is around 30x and she wants to see 20-25x. She's not selling. She wants to see the VIX shoot up, though it was high today. We could see a turnaround tomorrow.
DON'T BUY
He can see the temptation in buying it after the sell-off. But no. There's so much competition in streamers, and Netflix must continue spending. NFLX is not cheap in terms of cash flow and valuation, though the stock is overdue for a bounce. He prefers Disney and Paramount which trade at better valuations.
DON'T BUY
A debacle after last night's report, the second bad one in a row. Shares tanked over 35% today. Subscriber numbers are down and the sub forecast is dire. A no-growth company that doesn't make money, absolutely not what the markets wants these days. The market wants stocks that make tangible things, that makes money and returns that wealth to shareholders, trading at reasonable valuations.
BUY
It took its estimates way down when they reported at year's end, so shares plunged 50% and the PE was cut in half, but the PE is in line with the market. Expect this month's earnings season from the FAAANGs to issue caution. Expect growth from around 9-20% at a market multiple. These stocks are recession-proof, meaning they might grow a little less in a recession, but cyclicals will not grow at all. Also, cyclicals are trading at a higher PE now, and many industrials have had huge runs this year. In contrast, you can buy Apple, Alphabet or Netflix at a resonable PE. These companies have has sales larger than entire countries, and boast sales that are growing.
DON'T BUY
It bounced on March 14 with the market and has gone up to technical resistance. However the streaming business is very competitive. It has been volatile for a long time and the earnings forecast is tailing off. The fair market value is 45% below where it it.
BUY
With inflation out there, this may be the best-inflation buster out there. At 32x trailing PE, it's entering value territory.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 01/21, Down 29%) 2020 was great. Guidance was underwhelming. People want them to continue to grow to the moon, but they won't. He sees double-digit revenue growth, film-making costs will slow, free cashflow dramatically higher. Still excited about the services. Pullback is an opportunity.
COMMENT
25x operating cash flow. Has to get back to spending more on programming. Now there is much more competition from other companies on the streaming side.
BUY
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks As of Monday’s rebound, NFLX trades at 37.66x PE. At the end of 2020, that was 87.36x. The profit margins stands at 16.37% and ROE at 36.13%, among the highest in the software and programming space. So, a 20% plunge? For starters, remember that the world was in lockdown in 2020 and early 2021 until most of the population got vaccinated. That explains the 3.98 million bump in subs in early 2021. Also, one can argue that the street itself is to blame for having unrealistic expectations. Read Battle of the 2 Streaming Stocks: Netflix vs. Spotify for our full analysis.
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