Timothy Seymour

Outlook for the rest of 2022 There's likely more upside for the S&P and it hasn't peaked. We're up 10.5% since the Oct. 4 low. We've had a good rally. But also look into 2022 when the Fed will get involved. Megacap tech will take the market higher, but he doesn't see a much higher move through the end of this year.

Year-end seasonal trades: resources/energy which will be supported because of strong demand and supply constraints. Also, miners are more efficient than ever.

He's long Walmart and Amazon. The latter had ridiculous comps coming out of Covid, but have finally cleared those comps. Amazon is the top megacap tech stock. Walmart has underperformed 40% over one-year. The PE is not demanding. Food inflation actually benefits them. Walmart gets zero credit for its e-commerce. He prefers Walmart over Target in terms of PE and performance.

He's long Walmart and Amazon. The latter had ridiculous comps coming out of Covid, but have finally cleared those comps. Amazon is the top megacap tech stock. Amazon will benefit from Christmas buying. Walmart has underperformed 40% over one-year. The PE is not demanding. Food inflation actually benefits them. Walmart gets zero credit for its e-commerce. He prefers Walmart over Target in terms of PE and performance.

EWW includes cell phone companies and banks; it's not a terribly sexy cyclical ETF. If oil stays at these levels, then Mexico remains an interesting investment. For the time being, EM is under pressure given the rise of the USD.

He's been wrong on this for a long while and has stayed away. The PE is still above 65. But they can still execute, have pricing power and boast customer loyalty. That said, he'll pass.

He owns it because they dominate in every category: pricing and balance sheet (1.5x debt-to-EBITDA). A great franchise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-hertz-ev-deal-signal-to-rental-car-fleets-its-time-for-electric.html There's been a lot of criticism over the high valuation. The Hertz news is very meaningful to potential future sales and the deal puts EVs on Main Street. It's an extraordinary day, because it puts e-cars into the hands of those who wouldn't have driven a Tesla. The technology and driving experience are extraordinary. It's an important day. 40% move in 25 sessions for Tesla. Ultimately, it could go to $2,500, but not in the next few quarters; shares are way overbought. He doubts it'll fall to $500.

He's bullish oil; just look at the Russian oil stocks. Diamondback is best in breed... The whole sector has a lot of room to move higher.

It's up 1.5-4% after hours despite a mixed earnings report, but it's up because it announced further share buybacks. The expectation were so low heading into their report today, given Snapchat's poor report and FB's earlier comments on the Apple impact on FB's ad campaigns. Digital ad growth has been so strong leading up to this report. The $50 billion buyback is nice, and the metaverse that Zuckerberg envisions is an exciting growth area though investment costs could rise in this area. FB can dominate with any new products with anything they want, and that's what this story is about. Zuckerberg suggest there's a conspiracy against FB in today's call? By who? No, FB has done a lot of this to themselves (referring to recent leaked documents). Shares were due to bounce; he thinks it'll hold this level.

Mastercard announced that any of its merchants can soon offer crypto services. Cryptos have come remarkably far. Institutions have been waiting for and buying pullbacks hard. More regulation is good for prices, too. For MA, it's a story about embracing the future. MA has been held back by Covid reopening headwinds, but those headwinds are lifting fast, so MA looks interesting now.

Hard seltzer's growth isn't sustainable, though the street believes it. The stock has pulled back, but still isn't cheap. He sees low-single-digit growth in the sector for a while. He'd wait for this to pull back even more.

Corporate spending is coming back. UAL is adding 10% to international capacity, and those are the high-margin flights. This sector will continue to look better in Q4. Also, the airlines including United have become leaner and meaner, more efficient. Beware that the balance sheet has been levered and earnings power diluted.

He's bullish oil. Rig counts are more than double a year ago, and the higher oil prices go, the more drilling there'll be. Russian ADR stocks are breaking out and back to their all-time highs like Lukoy; these trades will continue to work.

He's bullish oil. He's long Schlumberger. Rig counts are more than double a year ago, and the higher oil prices go, the more drilling there'll be.