Timothy Seymour
Member since: Mar '21
Founder & CIO at
Seymour Asset Management
Seymour Asset Management
Reveal Expert Rating
30 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
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COMMENT
COMMENT
June 16, 2021
Jerome Powell's comments today Powell was focused on an uneven labour market which is what they're basing their policy on now. What also stood out was that the Fed clearly upgraded their inflation forecast, and the Fed regained their credibility in the market. They're not asleep at the switch and could make a reaction (in rates) at some point. That's what he took away. Regional banks moved up nicely today, but not materials. The dollar is the biggest story today, up 1%, which may reflect the market pricing in inflation. All we heard today was an upgraded GDP. Ultimately, the Fed wants to get to full employment.
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Jerome Powell's comments today Powell was focused on an uneven labour market which is what they're basing their policy on now. What also stood out was that the Fed clearly upgraded their inflation forecast, and the Fed regained their credibility in the market. They're not asleep at the switch and could make a reaction (in rates) at some point. That's what he took away. Regional banks moved up nicely today, but not materials. The dollar is the biggest story today, up 1%, which may reflect the market pricing in inflation. All we heard today was an upgraded GDP. Ultimately, the Fed wants to get to full employment.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 16, 2021
Biden-Putin summit today We need diplomatic dialogue, not silence, between the two countries. But the more important Russia dialogue is with OPEC to stabilize the oil price. Russia amounts to only 5% in the MSCI EM, but the diplomatic story today was important.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBiden-Putin summit today We need diplomatic dialogue, not silence, between the two countries. But the more important Russia dialogue is with OPEC to stabilize the oil price. Russia amounts to only 5% in the MSCI EM, but the diplomatic story today was important.
BUY
BUY
June 16, 2021
UPS has done a great job showing capacity discipline and has pricing power. We're not late cycle, otherwise he would stay away from transports like UPS and FedEx. UPS Q1 numbers saw shares spike and has since given some back. Now is a buying opportunity.
Transportation
BUY
BUY
June 16, 2021
Oil hit intraday highs today and continues to rally.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOil hit intraday highs today and continues to rally.
integrated oils
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 4, 2021
The Reddit/meme short-sellers (i.e. AMC this week) soaring 83%. Short-sellers aren't going after retail investors, but bad companies. Price can be truth in that a company can issue shares at a higher price, but it doesn't change a company's business. Cinemark, for example, isn't going through a share price surge like AMC. Investing with an incentive to track momentum is what professional investors do, but this is not a case of Us. vs Them, David vs. Goliath, retail investors vs. Wall Street.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe Reddit/meme short-sellers (i.e. AMC this week) soaring 83%. Short-sellers aren't going after retail investors, but bad companies. Price can be truth in that a company can issue shares at a higher price, but it doesn't change a company's business. Cinemark, for example, isn't going through a share price surge like AMC. Investing with an incentive to track momentum is what professional investors do, but this is not a case of Us. vs Them, David vs. Goliath, retail investors vs. Wall Street.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 4, 2021
The US weekly jobless report disappointed today The VIX plunged 9% today, the dollar is down again, gold rallied, and megacap tech ourtperformed as the US 10-year fell. Today is a case of the market heading into the weekend seemingly with having no cares in the world with the Fed on the sidelines, and this worries him.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe US weekly jobless report disappointed today The VIX plunged 9% today, the dollar is down again, gold rallied, and megacap tech ourtperformed as the US 10-year fell. Today is a case of the market heading into the weekend seemingly with having no cares in the world with the Fed on the sidelines, and this worries him.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 4, 2021
Wage inflation There are various reasons the stock has gone sideways. True, Their profitability and gross margins are improving. They're taking more e-commerce share and will win the food wars. However, their labour costs are serious and going up, so labour pressures are very real in the wider economy and will certainly be in the second half of 2021.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWage inflation There are various reasons the stock has gone sideways. True, Their profitability and gross margins are improving. They're taking more e-commerce share and will win the food wars. However, their labour costs are serious and going up, so labour pressures are very real in the wider economy and will certainly be in the second half of 2021.
department stores
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 2, 2021
Major ransomware attack on meat plants by Russia is the latest of several against the U.S. They have a pipeline and backlog of projects. Recent numbers showed 81% revenue growth, with revenues above $1 billion. On the enterprise side, there's room to sell more cybersecurity. These cybersecurity stocks are expensive, and they have not gone up. Year to date, we've had several cyber attacks (i.e. pipeline), but these stocks have gone nowhere.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMajor ransomware attack on meat plants by Russia is the latest of several against the U.S. They have a pipeline and backlog of projects. Recent numbers showed 81% revenue growth, with revenues above $1 billion. On the enterprise side, there's room to sell more cybersecurity. These cybersecurity stocks are expensive, and they have not gone up. Year to date, we've had several cyber attacks (i.e. pipeline), but these stocks have gone nowhere.
Technology
BUY
BUY
June 2, 2021
Crude oil prices hit 2018 highs They're the biggest oil field services leaders and the technology leader. They're also an efficient player in oil. The market is so far behind on this name, so he expects upgrades to come. This is best of breed and has a good balance sheet.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCrude oil prices hit 2018 highs They're the biggest oil field services leaders and the technology leader. They're also an efficient player in oil. The market is so far behind on this name, so he expects upgrades to come. This is best of breed and has a good balance sheet.
oil/gas field services
BUY
BUY
June 2, 2021
Their gaming business continues to grow and is currently 49% of their total revenues. A dominant player and, through acquisition, can do even more.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTheir gaming business continues to grow and is currently 49% of their total revenues. A dominant player and, through acquisition, can do even more.
computer software/processing
BUY
BUY
June 2, 2021
They're about to report. The brand is consistent and not just a Covid phenom. Thinks they'll surprise to the upside. The valuation doesn't make sense, though. Stock has been trading sideways and is looking for an excuse to break out.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey're about to report. The brand is consistent and not just a Covid phenom. Thinks they'll surprise to the upside. The valuation doesn't make sense, though. Stock has been trading sideways and is looking for an excuse to break out.
household goods
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 28, 2021
As a trade? Definitely. If you're long, then dance by the doors, so to speak. The future of movie-going is not in question, but AMC's future is. They have a terrible capital structure that will continue. They should raise as much capital as they can now. Their numbers were weak even before Covid. They carry $400 million in interest expenses, for instance. This is a broken business. People will go to movie theatres again, but movie releases will forever change, and yes he loves going to the movies. No way that AMC can earning its way into this valuation, around 40x EBIT to revenue. This is a short squeeze on AMC with a lot of momentum now.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAs a trade? Definitely. If you're long, then dance by the doors, so to speak. The future of movie-going is not in question, but AMC's future is. They have a terrible capital structure that will continue. They should raise as much capital as they can now. Their numbers were weak even before Covid. They carry $400 million in interest expenses, for instance. This is a broken business. People will go to movie theatres again, but movie releases will forever change, and yes he loves going to the movies. No way that AMC can earning its way into this valuation, around 40x EBIT to revenue. This is a short squeeze on AMC with a lot of momentum now.
entertainment services
BUY
BUY
May 28, 2021
EV stocks are making a comeback For years, Ford was losing money and selling boring cars, but now the F-150 is going electric and the F-150 is the biggest-seller in America. The EBITDA margin on the e-cars could be 8.5% vs. the current 4.5%. Ford plans to have 40% of its fleet to be EV in a few years. Their valuation makes sense compared to Tesla's valuation which makes zero sense. These EV stocks can be much, much higher.
EV stocks are making a comeback For years, Ford was losing money and selling boring cars, but now the F-150 is going electric and the F-150 is the biggest-seller in America. The EBITDA margin on the e-cars could be 8.5% vs. the current 4.5%. Ford plans to have 40% of its fleet to be EV in a few years. Their valuation makes sense compared to Tesla's valuation which makes zero sense. These EV stocks can be much, much higher.
Automotive
BUY
BUY
May 28, 2021
The U.S. reopening trade People will buy business casual again and this will be a huge driver in the apparel space. So, Gap or even Macy's fits the bill. However, to play the US reopening, buy energy stocks.
specialty stores
BUY
BUY
May 28, 2021
The U.S. reopening trade People will buy business casual again and this will be a huge driver in the apparel space. So, Gap or even Macy's fits the bill. However, to play the US reopening, buy energy stocks.
department stores
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