Micron Technology (MU)

20% of S&P gains this year are attributed to Micron. But at some point it stops growing at 294% and must moderate in coming years. It doesn't mean this story ends, though. If Korean's SK Hynix trades in the U.S. in July; the company has a large slice of the market share and will impact Micron.

He sold a third of his holding on Monday and today. His position got too large. Everyday, analysts kept raising the price target. It's not a growth stock. Selling at 10x 2027 earnings is not cheap. 

There's been hyper-demand for this and related stocks. At some prices, these high share prices have to come down, take a breather, and that's fine. Long term, there's plenty of life here.

From June 3-5 pulled back 20%. It trades at 46x PE and has 196% revenue growth and their inventory is sold out for the next 18 months. 

Be cautious. Could make sense if there's a substantial pullback. Beta is very high, 2x the S&P 500 -- if that corrects, this stock will move more quickly on the downside. Trades at 9.4x forward PE, growth rate is phenomenal. Very strong earnings growth.

Based on previous cycles where momentum can turn on a dime, Micron is especially vulnerable to this. Chips are acting like a commodity. That said, he doesn't see their share price or earning declining. A caveat is adding capacity, which has always killed the chips cycle. The difference is that now it takes longer given supply chain issues to add this capacity. Maybe one or two years out, MU will turn, doesn't know.

Demands is outstripping supply, driving prices up. Is this the right time enter a stock that's up so much (220% this year)? No technician will say it is. That said, the fundamentals support MU right now. Twelve months from now, capex can continue at this clip, though she is skeptical earnings can continue to grow 20-30% every quarter. Semis need a cooling off period.

It's too late to buy it. It up 219% this year. MU is seeing a massive uptick in earnings growth due to price increases. This situation rarely lasts after a couple of years when peers compete and become suppliers. Also, the LLMs and data centres will eventually find ways to use less memory. All it takes is for someone to say that they have found 20% more memory efficiency and MU stock could be $700 in two seconds.

Buying calls is likely the right strategy, for the near-term return. Don't buy long term or you will face the inevitable correction. It's trading at 60 million share daily, well above its average of 15 million. Options interest continues to grow. There's excessive speculation here, for sure.

It took Nvidia years to reach a trillion dollars, but Micron only 48 days. This screams it's meme-ish, is in the wrong hands, not in thoughtful hands. You could still make money buying calls, but MU has no investment thesis, just a speculation one. Still trades at 10x 2027 PE because there's a backlog. Speculation, not an investment.

Huge shortage. Sold out for next 1-2 years and can charge what they like. Wildly cyclical. Hard to sell something when the story's so good, but he'd be reducing over the next little while.

Chips, and mostly memory (which are in short supply). Making tons of money, but it's cyclical. You go from supply shortage to supply glut, and the stock rolls over. We're not there yet, but he'd be cautious. Good company, but skewed toward risk at this point.

He prefers more broadly diversified companies.

Continues to work, but a bit extended. If owned, perhaps trim a bit. Anticipating a consolidation phase. Overall, positive technical profile. To add, wait for a pullback.

It trades under 12x PE, but pulled back 6% today which may be the time to buy this. Buy some now, and more after a 2-3% decline.

A lot of these charts are tough to buy, but lots more room to run. When you think about the AI compute, it's not just the GPU anymore. We're getting all these optimizations across different parts that have to roll into data centres.

Focused on revolution of agentic AI. To reach solutions, it has to be heavily integrated and remember the different components. Its high-bandwidth memory is sold out through 2026, with supplies remaining tight potentially into 2028. 

You have to decide if this is still a cyclical company, or is it structural as we need a lot more memory going forward. His vote is for structural. Yield is 0.08%.