
TSE:MFC
Pretty much exactly the same as Sun Life (SLF-T) in that the dividend appears to be pretty safe. The one thing that is improving slightly is the probability of them doing a sizable acquisition (ING’s Asian insurance) on highly dilutive terms. Could face an actuarial review, so there could be a further write-down of $0.55 this quarter. Held hostage to bond yields.
Preeminent insurance company both here and in the US. Has been having a tough time because of risks taken to increase earnings. They have been in a retrench process and until the process is completed we don’t know what the core earning power really is. Until we know that, it is difficult to put a valuation on it. However, it has been trading at or below Book for quite a while so this is a good place to start. Doesn’t see a lot of upside in the short term unless interest rates move sustainably higher or until they can show core earnings are a lot higher.
Low interest rates are a real penalty and they suffer when equity markets do not do well. This is really a leveraged play on the performance of the capital markets. However, their underlying sales, particularly outside of North America, are phenomenal and growth prospects are exceedingly good. Working their way through the sins of the past and the current problems. Likes the story longer-term and is on his Watch List. He will be a buyer at $10.
Manulife (MFC-T) or Power Financial (PWF-T)? Big driver for these are the markets. He is cautiously optimistic and feels that in the short run, markets are okay. Low interest rates are also challenging for lifecos. Asian growth is attractive for Manulife but Asia is having some difficulties right now. Feels there are better sectors to focus on for either one.
Make money, but not as much as they used to. People want them to make a lot more money but it is just not possible when interest rates are so low in the insurance business. It is very hard for them to re-price their policies aggressively. Balance sheets for insurance companies are heavily weighted to interest rates. He has a very small position.
Doesn’t like the insurers in general. The problem is they have real issue in the asset side. With rates so low and forecast so low for the future they have real headwinds and she would not put any money into it.