Manulife Financial (MFC.TO)

He would buy this one if he had to buy one of them. A lot of their assets are not generating a lot of return on equity. They are planning to sell off some of these assets to improve their ROE. Their wealth management business is doing better than Sun Life’s even though it is not bigger.

This has some significant internal management problems. The stock has really gone nowhere. Every time we get a report, something new pops up. They have far too great an emphasis on building a business in the far east. Feels it is high risk business.

(Market Call Minute) You need rising interest rates.

During ‘08/’09, this was the only stock he owned that cut its dividend. Insurance companies invest your premiums. Traditionally they buy bonds. Bond yields are a real headwind for insurance companies. POW-T is better, or a Canadian bank.

The whole insurance/financial sector is suffering from near zero interest rates. This is incredibly well positioned in Asia and the US. Feels the shares truly have a 50% appreciation over the next 3 years or so. Expects to see dividend increases next year. All the policies written today, are based on very low interest rates. They have cleaned themselves up after the financial crisis, and it is a cheap stock.

3 to 10 Year Hold? Lifecos have long tails. It’s not like car insurance where every year rates are redone. Life insurance policies are for 5-10-20 years, so repricing is very difficult for them. They used to invest in bonds to cover liabilities, but can’t do that as easily anymore because rates are so low, which is pushing them into riskier parts of the investment curve. They missed their numbers by about 13%, although Asia did well for them. Not expensive, but doesn’t see how they make a lot of money going forward. He would rather own a bank for that time horizon.

Lifecos have assets and liabilities. Part of the overhang is the long end of the interest rate curve going down. They are investigating having to hold more cash on the balance sheet. Notwithstanding, they have hedges in place that mitigate short term exposure. The valuation should stay range bound for the short term.

(A Top Pick Oct 2/15. Down 9.85%.) He still likes this. It has visible earnings growth of 12% per annum over the next couple of years. It has 11% annual dividend growth. Operationally they did everything right, but their energy book was a real problem, which knocked down their BV per share. It is doing well in both its US and Asian operations. Thinks they can grow their dividend 11% year-over-year.

It is hard to find dividend paying stocks right now at relatively good valuations. This one is trading at less than BV with a yield of 4.08%. They have been increasing their dividend more aggressively recently. Longer-term, he likes their wealth management franchise as people move from saving for, to spending in retirement, and insurance companies are well-equipped to handle that.

(A Top Pick Sept 1/15. Down 8.85%.) This was a weak moment when she thought interest rates were going to go up. You have to think that at some point interest rate will go higher.

(A Top Pick July 29/15. Down 19.79%.) People are a little concerned about its exposure to Asia and the slowdown that is occurring there. At this price you have the ability to buy a well-run insurance company that has de-risked its balance sheet greatly over the last number of years. It has changed its product mix to the extent that it is a lot less market sensitive than it used to be. Trading at less than BV, and is still a Buy.

4.2% dividend. They are really about wealth management. They began as an insurance company. His favourite is SLF-T, but that does not mean you sell your MFC-T. It should continue to do well by virtue of the market doing well, however he thinks you may do a little better in SLF-T.

This has not done well. There are a lot of headwinds in terms of energy loans in their energy bonds. Interest rates not going up is not good for lifecos. It’s a cheap stock. Longer-term, she likes their positioning in Asia, and about a 3^rd of their revenues are from there. This is one you might be open to pick at and build a position in. Pretty cheap now.

On a technical basis it does not look good. It is in a downward trend and has support around the $15 level. Its strength is negative. It is not a good time to own it for a seasonal trade. It does well until April of each year.

By all measures, this is probably cheap, but the problem is that it is very rate sensitive. You really have to believe in interest rates going up or the yield curve steepening. Near its 52 week lows, based on people’s view that rates are not going back up again.