Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY)

It's developing a pill of the popular weight-loss drug, which would be more popular than injection. Also, the current GLP-1 drugs cause you lose fat and muscle equally. The LLY shot will be more targeted at fat. 

Previously owned both, but sold out of NVO because it's more concentrated in the diabetes and weight loss space. Weight loss has come out of favour somewhat due to competition and generics. NVO's 200-day MA is falling, with stock price falling below that. Earnings growth only 6%. Long term will come back into favour, as it's a big market.

LLY is more diversified, has larger scale. Chart's technical structure is better, though performance has been flat/negative over last 12 months. Price is above 200-day MA. 15% earnings growth.

Their weight-loss drug, he feels, can be used for hypertension, dementia and alcoholism. The stock is stalled because it's clumsy to use (refrigerated, then injected), but LLY is tested a daily pill to replace that. This would expand their market and market cap a lot.

Both bullish and bearish cycles last longer than one would ever expect. Does see a turnaround in the space. This name has a very good franchise with GLP-1 drugs, taking share from NVO. Multiple is low-mid 30s, and he's hoping it'll go a bit lower. He's waiting for a firmer bottoming.

There was a lot of hype in the weight-loss drugs, typical for a new drug (or technology).  This and Novo Nordisk have recently fallen. The future asks, How will they monetize the GLP-1 franchise? An oral application, which will happen in time. Many moving parts in this industry. LLY's PE has fallen from 50x to 35x. Is a hold depending on your overall portfolio and other factors.

A lot of the move down happened this week. Numbers were good -- earnings and revenue beat, guidance was good. Market really homed in on obesity pill disappointment (slightly less efficacy than a competitor's, 10% dropped out due to side effects). Now trades at 24x PE, with 19% growth.

Very cheap, but sentiment has become difficult and challenging. Long term, the demand for diabetes and obesity drugs is still there and will continue to grow. Industry-leading Alzheimer's drug in pipeline as well. Fortress-like balance sheet, really great cashflow. 

Stock collapsed today on good news from NVO trials. Lots of drugs in pipeline for dementia and other illnesses. Step up and buy some more today. Today's drop is just a knee-jerk reaction.

It reports Thursday. Is concerned, given recent awful numbers reported by its GLP-1 competitor, Novo Nordisk. Is LLY taking market share? Are these companies are staying at peak with these drugs? He thinks a little of both. He sold a few shares to take a huge gain.

Best among the weight-loss drugs, more effective than its peers. Also, the oral version will be a game-changer. LLY is gaining market share as its manufacturing ramps up. Shares are flat and need a catalyst, possibly on Aug. 7 with earnings. Their oncology platform is also doing well. He expects their revenues to double by 2030, based on 25-30% compounded growth.

The catalyst would be if they can deliver an oral weight-loss drug and he expects so. He agrees with today's upgrade.

He trimmed. Is trading at 33x PE, down from 55x. Is the front runner in the GLP-1 business with 60% market share.

Data just released says that LLY's weight-loss drug is far better than peer Novo Nordisk. Buy this hand over fist.

The more successful of the GLP-1 stocks compared to NVO. Decent entry point. Trades in the 30s on forward PE, so there's a strong expectation of prescription growth; every reason to believe that's going to happen. 

Be cautious on position size; don't be aggressive. Stock was down 10% yesterday because NVO made a deal with CVS to become its prime recommended product for obesity. So NVO is starting to compete more on price.