Bruce Murray Eli Lilly & Co. LLY-N BUY Aug 07, 2025

They report Thursday. Their last report laid an egg, but expects this one to be better, so he will hold on.

The more successful of the GLP-1 stocks compared to NVO. Decent entry point. Trades in the 30s on forward PE, so there's a strong expectation of prescription growth; every reason to believe that's going to happen. 

Be cautious on position size; don't be aggressive. Stock was down 10% yesterday because NVO made a deal with CVS to become its prime recommended product for obesity. So NVO is starting to compete more on price.

Data just released says that LLY's weight-loss drug is far better than peer Novo Nordisk. Buy this hand over fist.

He trimmed. Is trading at 33x PE, down from 55x. Is the front runner in the GLP-1 business with 60% market share.

The catalyst would be if they can deliver an oral weight-loss drug and he expects so. He agrees with today's upgrade.

Best among the weight-loss drugs, more effective than its peers. Also, the oral version will be a game-changer. LLY is gaining market share as its manufacturing ramps up. Shares are flat and need a catalyst, possibly on Aug. 7 with earnings. Their oncology platform is also doing well. He expects their revenues to double by 2030, based on 25-30% compounded growth.

It reports Thursday. Is concerned, given recent awful numbers reported by its GLP-1 competitor, Novo Nordisk. Is LLY taking market share? Are these companies are staying at peak with these drugs? He thinks a little of both. He sold a few shares to take a huge gain.

A lot of the move down happened this week. Numbers were good -- earnings and revenue beat, guidance was good. Market really homed in on obesity pill disappointment (slightly less efficacy than a competitor's, 10% dropped out due to side effects). Now trades at 24x PE, with 19% growth.

Very cheap, but sentiment has become difficult and challenging. Long term, the demand for diabetes and obesity drugs is still there and will continue to grow. Industry-leading Alzheimer's drug in pipeline as well. Fortress-like balance sheet, really great cashflow.