Bruce Murray Eli Lilly & Co. LLY-N BUY Aug 07, 2025

The catalyst would be if they can deliver an oral weight-loss drug and he expects so. He agrees with today's upgrade.

Best among the weight-loss drugs, more effective than its peers. Also, the oral version will be a game-changer. LLY is gaining market share as its manufacturing ramps up. Shares are flat and need a catalyst, possibly on Aug. 7 with earnings. Their oncology platform is also doing well. He expects their revenues to double by 2030, based on 25-30% compounded growth.

It reports Thursday. Is concerned, given recent awful numbers reported by its GLP-1 competitor, Novo Nordisk. Is LLY taking market share? Are these companies are staying at peak with these drugs? He thinks a little of both. He sold a few shares to take a huge gain.

A lot of the move down happened this week. Numbers were good -- earnings and revenue beat, guidance was good. Market really homed in on obesity pill disappointment (slightly less efficacy than a competitor's, 10% dropped out due to side effects). Now trades at 24x PE, with 19% growth.

Very cheap, but sentiment has become difficult and challenging. Long term, the demand for diabetes and obesity drugs is still there and will continue to grow. Industry-leading Alzheimer's drug in pipeline as well. Fortress-like balance sheet, really great cashflow. 

There was a lot of hype in the weight-loss drugs, typical for a new drug (or technology).  This and Novo Nordisk have recently fallen. The future asks, How will they monetize the GLP-1 franchise? An oral application, which will happen in time. Many moving parts in this industry. LLY's PE has fallen from 50x to 35x. Is a hold depending on your overall portfolio and other factors.

Both bullish and bearish cycles last longer than one would ever expect. Does see a turnaround in the space. This name has a very good franchise with GLP-1 drugs, taking share from NVO. Multiple is low-mid 30s, and he's hoping it'll go a bit lower. He's waiting for a firmer bottoming.

Their weight-loss drug, he feels, can be used for hypertension, dementia and alcoholism. The stock is stalled because it's clumsy to use (refrigerated, then injected), but LLY is tested a daily pill to replace that. This would expand their market and market cap a lot.

Previously owned both, but sold out of NVO because it's more concentrated in the diabetes and weight loss space. Weight loss has come out of favour somewhat due to competition and generics. NVO's 200-day MA is falling, with stock price falling below that. Earnings growth only 6%. Long term will come back into favour, as it's a big market.

LLY is more diversified, has larger scale. Chart's technical structure is better, though performance has been flat/negative over last 12 months. Price is above 200-day MA. 15% earnings growth.