Brianne GardnerEli Lilly & Co.LLYPAST TOP PICKNov 28, 2025

Has owned a long time in the growth fund. It is a leader in GLP 1. Every year the weight loss drugs seem to be able to treat another condition so it is a bit of a miracle drug. Is still early for these drugs. It is expensive so if you want something else you could try Thermo Fisher for broad exposure. The health care sector still has an overhang from Covid and the US government has pulled back on spending.

His preference in the space.

NVO chart's under pressure. Where are we in the saturation cycle for GLP-1 penetration? Also, what will the price/volume dynamics be, since NVO kicked off a price war?

LLY has the better position in terms of branded drugs. Hasn't pulled the trigger on either.

He likes their just-announced purchase of Centessa, which makes drugs to tackle narcolepsy, drug/alcohol addiction and mood disorders.

What we're seeing now are expectations settling after a very strong runup. Still at the centre of the biggest shift in healthcare. Keeps expanding its opportunities and taking market share.

Winning the weight-loss drug war. Active pipeline.

Likes pharma and has long owned several such stocks. Between LLY and NVO, their competitor, it is a zero-sum race that LLY is winning in the weight-loss drugs. LLY has always been expensive. He likes Amgen for its GLP-1 drug (still pending approval).

They beat earnings and shares jumped over 10% today. They have a partnership with Nvidia to treat hard-to-defeat diseases. With this firepower, they will succeed.

 It reports Wednesday. What drives this stock are new drug trials of its weight-loss drug. If they announce new data, shares could move.

The street is passing on this because it has a much higher PE now, making it too risky.

Breaking out to new highs. Bit more diversified than NVO, and a bit more stable. Supposed to come out with pill form for weight loss sometime this year. Well above 200-day MA, which is starting to push higher. Prefers this name.

NVO is more focused on 2 areas:  diabetes and weight loss. Recently announced pill version for weight loss, and that's very positive. Valuation's quite cheap. Competitive pricing, regulatory scrutiny. Trades at 17x PE, but earnings growth forecast looks cloudy for next couple of years. Might be building a base, but still a tad below 200-day MA.

Both have signed agreement with US government for expansion in Medicare, albeit with lower pricing.

Weight-loss space is currently a battle between NVO and LLY, though other competitors will arrive on the scene in the next 5-10 years. LLY secured way more capacity than NVO did. LLY executed better, and revenue and sales should grow much faster. 

Huge drop in NVO makes it more interesting, but LLY still has the better growth outlook (including the pill version when it hits the market later this year).

Last 3 months have started to see some improvement in the sector, and almost immediately this name went to a new high. Quickly got extended, and then pulled back to where it broke out. Going through transformation. Massive growth in GLP-1 drugs, which has shifted the company from a boring, steady income earner to a growth stock.

Technically, has broken out of a very nice base. Clearly, a leader in the pharma sector. Sees multiple expansion and earnings growth. Hard to imagine that growth in weight-loss drugs will slow if they can move from injection to oral pill. Poster child for what to own in healthcare. Yield is 0.65%.

Very resilient name, especially compared to peers such as NVO. Global pharma leader -- obesity, diabetes, oncology, neuroscience. Strong pipeline. Strong, expanding global presence. Earnings growth expected to be ~20% going forward. Pricing agreement with Trump administration is a big tailwind. Though some obesity prices are lower because of that, in exchange they get expanded coverage in Medicare. 

Bit overbought at this point, so he'd probably wait for some softness before adding. Long-term secular tailwinds:  aging demographics, rising healthcare spending globally, advances in biotechnology. Yield is 0.58%.