
TSE:KEL
It has acted quite well. It made a base last year and broke it a little. He would like to see it break out further. You want to see these producers strengthen here. This is a fantastic name and it will go if the whole sector goes. $8 is where you would take some profit, if it comes down to it. He would still buy it today.
You might want to make a small purchase on this. It has been trading between $6 and $7.50, so it is near the lower end of that range now. At this level, you can think of this as a trading stock. Use a tight stop at $6. Generally he is negative about energy stocks at this point. There is a lot of risk with this, and not a lot of positive fundamentals. Be willing to sell quickly and expect to make about 50 cents. There are many other trading opportunities that he likes better and he would not be trading this.
On a shorter-term chart, the stock is doing quite well, a gentle but up channel. There has been 2.5 years of overhead supply, and we have about 2 years of uptrend, so a good portion of overhead supply should have been digested, although the upside will be somewhat limited. It should still stay in a gentle up channel.
This started out as a gas play, but there is more oil to it. The stock market is still supporting the top companies, and this one is easily in the top 5 gas drillers in Western Canada. His problem is that he just can't get his head around gas. There is just too much of it. He would rather own the infrastructure such as pipelines.
Has a management team he can’t speak highly enough about. They’ve created a tremendous amount of value. There is not a great enough rate of change to be able to justify it on a cash flow basis, you have to take more of an asset approach. They are still in the learning curve of delineating their acreage. Well results this year have been very good. Due to where they are drilling, they are getting more liquids and less natural gas. However, you are paying a bit of a premium relative to some of their peers. He finds other names a little more attractive.
They buy good assets on the cheap. They buy good quality assets. Their production on a debt adjusted per share basis is going to continue to soar. They have good reserves. A real winner. One of the largest positions in his Fund.