Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO)

10.53

+0.18 (1.74%)

as of Sep 23, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

142 watching

DON'T BUY

Not a holding now. They paid off all their debt by selling some assets. They are at a net cash position. In the short term there is no reason to own the stock due to lack of catalyst.

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WATCH

Insiders are buying more of the stock. They sold their primary asset. It's up to the team to show that the rest of the assets are as good quality. The streets are sceptic. If the well economics are the same, we will see a rerating.

DON'T BUY

He held it for a number of years. With the current backdrop, they are doing as well as they can. Management is good. They had to sell some of their assets for less than he thought it was worth. The valuation is compelling but there are opportunities in the near-term.

TOP PICK

The stock is down 70% this year on fear of their bank line, which is now fully drawn. They have applied for government loans -- one of the first in the patch to do so. At $40 oil they generate free cash flow. When the market is ready for a corporate sale, you could see a $4 stock price. Conoco-Phillips has been active along the fence line beside them and it could be a good target. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.21)

BUY

It's his only oil stock. Their relationship with their bankers is strong, so he's not worried about that. They were under-levered going into the lockdown. They can monetize one of their world-class assets if they wish to, but he doesn't see pressure to. A better oil price would help, of course. Among mid/small-caps, this is a comfortable one to own.

BUY

He has been a recently buyer. The knock is that they are fully drawn against their credit facility. They are undergoing credit reviews by the banks and that is holding things back. They have deferred monetization of assets until at least 2021. There is still room for a good rally from here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 09/19, Down 37%) A lot of new institutional money moved into this in Q4 2019 after it was beaten up. KEL reached an inflection point; they figured out what to do with their land and are moving into full development mode including drilling that will lead to increasing margins. He continues to hold it. He expects good momentum for KEL as the virus fades. A top-tier firm with strong assets in the Montney.

BUY

It's the only oil stock he owns. The management owns 16% of the stock. Great track record in creating shareholder wealth. They've built two big properties over the last three years, and they will crystallize some of that value in six months, selling either the BC or Alberta assets--each is worth the current stock price. They can pay a special dividend, can pay off all their debt. A solid, well-run company with a fine balance sheet.

BUY

They were deleted from the index. It is a very high quality asset and company. They are not managing expectations as well as perhaps they could have. They are drilling wells with a 6 month payout. He likes it. He sees pretty good upside next year.

BUY

If it's dropped from the TSX. The market caps of a lot of small caps have shrunk a lot and could be delisted. Hedge funds are shorting these heavily, so the stock prices have plunged. (The selling happens ahead of the delisting.) He's adding to his positions of these names including Kelt. He respects the Kelt CEO who is buying millions of dollars of shares. All this shows the disconnect between current valuations and long-term value. This company is worth a lot more than the market currently believes.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 18/18, Down 63%) The lesson is: never invest in a Canadian energy stock. That said, the management has done everything very well. Amazing assets and fine balance sheet, but....nobody cares (about Canadian oil). He doesn't know when oil will recover.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 28/18, Down 55%) A liquids rich natural gas producer. It is still transitioning through 1000 sections of land in the Montney. They intent to watch development in the area and focus on best-practices in the most prolific areas.

DON'T BUY

It's Canadian crude and gas in BC, which means it is pressured by low oil prices and a lack of pipelines. It's in the same boat as all Canadian oil producers.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 05/18, Down 47%) Run by a solid management team, but this is being impacted by the energy sector as a whole. They are paying down debt and doing all the right things. He continues to hold it.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 14/18, Down 38%) Canadian oil has been a tough place since the latter months of 2018. Fine managers. They have a huge land position in northeast BC. But this is an unloved sector. Yet, oil demand continues to rise each year. It comes down to timing.

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Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO)