John StephensonInnergex Renewable EnergyINE.TOCOMMENTJul 16, 2013

This is how he'd play the renewable energy trade. Thinks rates will go higher next year, which makes him cautious. If that's the case for rates, a lot of the bond proxies like utilities and REITs are going to come under pressure. A bit more upside potential, but for a trade.

Tough, down about half. Lots of money was chasing few investment outlets, and that bid up the multiples of all green energy. Valuation changed dramatically, further compounded by rising interest rates. Operating weakness. Steer clear. 

If you own it, hard to exit at a 50% loss. You need to do something at some point. More recovery potential than others. Other income opportunities out there with less risk. 

INE has been closely tracking to the broader 'clean energy' industry (PBW as a proxy). The PBW ETF peaked in early 2021 as 'green' stocks flourished, but the ETF and industry has since made a new 52-week low. The stock is a $2.1B company that has demonstrated strong top-line growth and a decent amount of free cash flows. It pays a solid yield of 7%, but is highly leveraged, with a net debt of $5.9B. It trades at an OK valuation of 2.0X forward sales and 1.9X book. A lot of high growth, unprofitable names have been impacted recently with renewed recession fears as bond yields spike and inflation re-accelerated in recent readings. We would like to see the company achieve profitability, and we feel that this could help support its share price, particularly as it grows its top-line at a strong rate.
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Produces green power. Likes it. Trades at much higher multiples than Polaris. Would chose Polaris in the sector, but INE is a solid player in the sector.

INE vs. RNW RNW depends on drop-down from the parent for growth. Whereas INE is an independent power producer. At current valuations, he prefers RNW. Pretty good visibility over the next few years. INE is more expensive and has good prospects, but its valuation doesn't have as much upside.

It has been on fire this year (up 30%). Hydro Quebec is buying 10% of the stock. He would stay on the sidelines since it has rallied just based on a strategic alliance with Hydro Quebec.