iShares Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS.TO)…

iShares Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS.TO)

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8 watching

DON'T BUY

Natural Gas ETF. In 1 year gas will definitely be higher than what it is now. Longer term, 3-5 years, it will probably be in the $6-$8 range. Most equities are pricing in $6 to $7 gas so there is not as much upside as you would think. This ETF is based on the next contract, which is 1 month. Contract is rolled every month and every time the price is higher you end up buying fewer contracts so you could actually lose money even though the price might be $6. Timeframe for an investor would be 2 or 3 days.

COMMENT

Natural Gas. If you like gas and you want to hold it in your portfolio for a few weeks this will give you that exposure.

TOP PICK

Natural gas ETF. Natural gas is down 27% this year and hit a low of $3.40 and is now at about $4. Oil is currently around $70. Ratio is 18 to 1, which is completely out of whack. Should be closer to 6-8 to 1. Natural gas tends to do very well in the 3rd quarter.

BUY

Natural gas ETF. Not leveraged. He likes natural gas and this will give you exposure to a rising gas price. Also there are no company risks. From a seasonal perspective, it is a little early. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

Natural gas has been a laggard in the commodity complex. A lot more gas has been found and technology has improved for accessing shale gas. Doesn't see strong pricing power.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Natural gas is a tough one to call.

COMMENT

Natural Gas: Preferred seasonality for Alberta natural gas (GAS-T) is from the end of August until the end of December. This trade has worked 7 of the 10 times for an average return of 25% each. You would expect the US Natural Gas (UNG-T) would be very similar but it is from the end of July to the end of October. This is worked 8 of the past 10 periods for an average gain of 17.4% each. This has a lot to do with currency.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Natural gas should be at the bottom of the cycle but he is not expecting too much on the upside. Thinks it gets back to $6-$7 long-term.

BUY

(Market Call Minute) Shutting down so supply/demand will shift in favour of it going higher.

BUY

Bad quarter. Held back by US dollar. Long term benefit.

PAST TOP PICK

(past top pick June 16, 2004. down 5%) Looks fine.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past top pick June 16/04. Up slightly.) Still likes.

STRONG BUY

One of his favorite junior to growing mid-cap companies. Well-managed.

TOP PICK

Not very low risk. Thin stock. Few shares

BUY

Run by a brilliant veteran of the business. Not a conservative company. Speculative.

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iShares Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS.TO)