Don VialouxiShares Natural Gas Commodity ETFGAS.TOCOMMENTJun 02, 2009
Natural Gas: Preferred seasonality for Alberta natural gas (GAS-T) is from the end of August until the end of December. This trade has worked 7 of the 10 times for an average return of 25% each. You would expect the US Natural Gas (UNG-T) would be very similar but it is from the end of July to the end of October. This is worked 8 of the past 10 periods for an average gain of 17.4% each. This has a lot to do with currency.
Has futures contracts underlying it. There is net asset erosion over time because of rolling over contracts. He does not think any of these are really great for long term hold. Prefers companies who explore like FCG-N and ZJN-T.
There is a huge amount of natural gas coming out of fracking in the US. It may be worth looking at now. It is possible that the US could be self sufficient for energy within a decade. It may be time to be looking at Nat. Gas.
Natural Gas Commodity ETF. This trades an awful lot like a commodity because it’s based on Canadian gas contract. He doesn't like it because he just doesn't know what it's going to do.
Likes natural gas. The further up that oil goes the better chance for natural gas to go up. Typical of supply and demand and there is a lot more supply than demand. You could bet on the commodity through this and longer term do quite well.
These ETFs do well when futures prices are lower than present because you are buying low and selling higher. When they are in co tango, you are buying high and selling low.
Natural Gas Commodity ETF (GAS-T) or Perpetual Energy (PMT-T) for a 5-year gas play? A 5-year expectation that gas will go up eventually is reasonable. He would hold Perpetual. This one is essentially Future contracts and essentially are Buying high and Selling low..
Natural Gas ETF. Quite volatile and he has very little exposure to it. At some point natural gas will go up but doesn’t see it on the horizon right now. If you own, consider for tax loss selling.