
TSE:FTS
Track record is amazing. Longest track record of dividend increases in Canada. His problem is that their last acquisition did not have anything to the bottom line. He doesn’t trust management that this latest acquisition will add anything either. Doesn’t see synergies in acquiring a utility in Tucson, Arizona versus the utilities that they have now in Canada. Sold his holdings just before the last acquisition.
Thinks this goes higher. Has a target of $35. They’ve gone through a number of quarters for years with earnings that have just continued to go down. Thinks they have bottomed here. Sees growth coming from utility expansion of almost $5 billion over the next 3 years. Sees the expiration of rate freezes at their subsidiary CH Energy occurring in the mid-2015. Waneta Dam revenues should start in 2015. Their unregulated businesses he thinks, are going to improve from here or they can be sold.
Top Short. He would not go near utilities and these guys are the biggest outliers in terms of poor growth and bad economics. They have a ton of leverage in these utility models. When the yield curve goes up and they want to refinance their leverage, it is going to be a lot higher. He would be surprised if they ever grow. Trading at 18X earnings right now, which is ridiculous.
Likes this as a utility play. Natural gas utility in BC and have a number of other assets, including real estate and Caribbean utilities as well. They’ll get paid because they generate the power electricity and get paid by contract. They’ll have to fund the acquisition of the New York company but the markets are healthy for equity issues these days. 4% dividend yield. Could flirt with $35 in the next year.
Sold it because PE got too high relative to yield. Moved to REITs. Would not look at it now.