
TSE:FFH
Great Canadian company. Values scores 8/10, fundamentals 9/10. P&C insurer plus invests in a wide range of businesses, and results can be mixed because of this investment style. Known for taking big bets, which can lead to big wins or big misses. Making strategic portfolio moves. Sees upside from here of potentially 20%. Outperformed most of its insurance peers. Reasonable PE of 8.4x, and that's an opportunity. Analysts see it as Undervalued by as much as 65%. On her watchlist.
Likes the insurance space and sees a lot of opportunity there. This is a solid pick for investors who want exposure to the sector in more of a contrarian way. A mini-Berkshire Hathaway.
In the defensive part of Canadian financial services. Underwriting profitability consistently getting better, the core reason why stock's been doing better. Opportunity to term out its fixed income portfolio. Not a screaming bargain today, but makes sense as part of a diversified portfolio especially as we pivot away from banks and get a bit more defensive.
A bit of a black box. Stock price has done very well the last few years, after having gone nowhere before that. Insurance at the core, and Prem Watsa's done a great job allocating those premiums. Higher rates favours insurers, lower rates the opposite, and he has no control over what the future holds.
If you own it, hold. You may want to investigate succession plans.
Everyone was shorting it in the 2000s, and now it's one of the most favoured stocks on the TSX. Up 13% YTD. He owns it in TFSAs. Helped by global acquisitions. Combined ratio ~94%. Underwriting has improved, costs kept in line. Almost every operation it has is showing profitability.
Estimated PE for this year is about 10x, normal for insurance industry. Has hit a high, but it's one you want to own for the long term. He continues to buy for clients.
Because of the company's style, we can't do much about the earnings volatility. Value investments go in and out of favour, and monetization of assets can occur at anytime and skew results materially. 2018 to 2021 we think was an abberation. FFH barely made any money in 2018 and lost money in 2020. The past four years have been fabulous, yet the stock trades at 9X earnings. If we look at consensus numbers (with the same degree of uncertainty), analysts do expect very strong EPS for the next five years ($95 per share to $184). We might guess (not a prediction) for 15% earnings growth. We would be comfortable buying as long as an investors understands the company and has patience. The dividend is not great but there is at least 0.90% while one waits. But we think its long term record override the weak five year period.
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