
TSE:DOL
He took profits recently. The valuations are a bit high for this space. A lot of the Canadian consumer staples stocks/retailers are expensive. This one is trading at about 28X forward earnings, with still a very good growth rate of 15%-17%. They had a very strong earnings report last quarter, which pushed the stock from the $110 level to $120, and it is now starting to plateau again. They are now accepting credit cards which is helping them. They have a long runway for expansion.
The stock is quite expensive, but he expects the growth to continue. They just came off the blockbuster quarter. The continuing growth is coming from 2 areas. 1.) The average transaction size is increasing. 2.) They are going to continue to open more stores. He would be cautious and take a half position, looking to leg in the rest whenever there is a small window of weakness. He doesn’t own this because the dividend is under 1%. Dividend yield of 0.36%.
Going forward, it is expensive. About double the valuation of other dollar stores in the US, but worth it. They recently said they had the ability to add hundreds of new stores. They will also be introducing new concepts. It is run by one of the best management teams in Canada. He would buy it on a pull back because it is so expensive here.
Just reported some great numbers. Good earnings and good guidance going forward. A good name in terms of management and execution, and they have a lot of runway for expansion in Canada. Trading at 26X forward earnings, which makes him a little concerned. It has a 15% long-term growth rate, so it is still at a 1.5X PEG ratio, not extremely cheap. They are rolling out credit card acceptance nationwide for the 1st time, which should be available by Q2 fiscal 2018 which should help sales. Feels the valuation is a bit stretched.
The leading dollar store in Canada. An absolute growth powerhouse since the IPO in 2009. Reported 4th quarter earnings last week, and it was a massive beat relative to expectations. They increased their original target of growing to 1400 stores in Canada, to 1700 stores. At the current run rate, they are building 65-70 stores a year, and still seem to manage to generate very good 5%-6% comps in same-store sales growth, as a result of rolling out higher and higher price points. Great management and great execution. He would be very comfortable with this.
Chances of splitting? Just reported earnings and had very good numbers. They continue to exceed expectations, and as a result their share price is rewarded. Trading over $110, so it does beg the question whether or not they should split. If they split the shares, it makes it easier for retail investors to invest in it. However, you don’t really create any value when you split or consolidate shares.
One of his larger positions. They have been consolidating for 6 months. Their financial reporting has been excellent and they come out with earnings tomorrow. This is an excellent Canadian growth story. They have another 300 stores to open in Canada. They have a two year payback. He is not sure how they grow once they have saturated the Canadian market. They buy back shares and have done an excellent job of increasing shareholder value. He is buying here. Try for below $100.
This has done very well in expanding their business. The thesis is that the Canadian market is under penetrated and under stored compared to the US. They have obviously come a long way in catching up. There is still a couple more years for them, in terms of catching up. They have some feelers in South America. In the meantime, they are going to continue to introduce some higher-priced items. It is a higher risk stock now compared to what it used to be.