Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Dollarama trades at a much higher multiple, nearly twice as much. DLTR's stock fell because of Family Dollar acquisition, but they should get their margins back up again. Free cash yield of 5.6%, much cheaper than Dollara.

(A Top Pick Oct 4/16. Up 9%.) This has been an up-and-down stock. They merged with a company called Dollar General and the stock ran up to about $90 a share last year. The 1^st results came out. Mergers cost money and things weren’t happening, and the stock depressed. The last quarter came out and the merger is starting to work now. This company can open several thousand more stores, so he still likes this.

(A Top Pick Oct 4/16. Down 4.73%.) This got caught in the Amazon (AMZN-Q) fiasco. They created their own problems with a takeover of Family Dollar. Still thinks this is going to work in the longer-term.

He likes the Dollar store space, but doesn’t know a lot about the company. You might want to look at Dollarama (DOL-T), which also has a high PE and a high growth rate, but much more of a consistent stock performance.

Had a tough quarter because Walmart (WMT-N) is getting far more competitive with the dollar stores, as well as selling a bit of food. Has a target price of $103. They did the Family Dollar deal and there will be big synergies coming on the back of that. They are reformatting all of their stores. Currently trading at 15X 2 years forward.

They use all their cash for building new stores. That is why the dividend is low. They recently trimmed their holding.

A US dollar store? This one is coming into Canada, especially out West. He likes the sector. They did the Family Dollar acquisition, and are digesting that right now. There will be lots of synergies coming out of that. Opening 900 stores this year and 1000 next year and have 15,000 stores, so there is lots of opportunity for growth. Has a $92 target price.

These dollar stores, as a whole, have done incredibly well. One of the problems that Wal-Mart (WMT-N) has had is competing with these guys, who have taken a lot of market share away. He can see how they could continue to do well and grab shares from what Wal-Mart traditionally got. Very efficient operators, from both a store and inventory basis. Not a cheap story, but on a pullback it is worth buying.

Dollar Tree has done very well. Sooner or later the stock should be seeing a top formation and could have a double top formation, or ”M” which is often followed by the collapse of the stock . Should have a stop loss around $80.00. Also, should have a 2^nd stop loss around $75.00. If those 2 things break the stock could come down to the support level of about $60.00.

A good operator of dollar stores in the US and recently purchased their rival Family Dollar, which has an entirely different strategy in the way they operate. Thinks it is a good acquisition and will take a little while to digest. In a slow economic environment, you see a lot of people shopping there, so the concern is that as the US economy picks up, it is less of an attraction. A good sector to be in, although some of the valuations are getting pretty full.

Shareholders have agreed to a takeover by Family Dollar Stores (FDO-N). This makes the company more attractive as it has the synergies happening and a bigger footprint The average American has $900-$1000 more of disposable income. These types of stores will be beneficiaries of lower energy prices.

Anheuser Busch (BUD-N) or Dollar Tree (DLTR-Q)? Given the choice, he would probably go with Anheuser Busch. Consumer spending has been a little bit suspect and he would tend to shy away from the purer play of consumer spending. Anheuser Busch would be more of a staple as opposed to a discretionary.

(A Top Pick September 13/12. Up 15.37%.) He has peeled back quite a bit of it at this point so doesn’t own it for all of his clients. He has really shifted away from the dollar types of stores into the upper market types.

Fallen about 30% in the last few months. Don't average down. Don't sell. It is a pretty good entry point. Dollar Tree has a little bit more competition that Dollarama in Canada.

Pulled back to its 200 day moving average. Even if the economy does well, what typically happens at these stores is that people who usually shop there will continue to do so and will start to spend more. Third-largest retailer in that space. Trading around 16-17 times forward earnings. 15%-20% growth rate.