Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Has 15,000 stores in two brands. New managers will remodel stores, introduce multiple price points and new combo stores. This strategy under a new CEO will raise same-store sales growth, benefit EPS and improve margins over 3-5 years. DOL's multi-price strategy worked, so it should work for DLTR. He sees 30% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $118.48)

Sell Costco to buy DLTR? Costco is very well run, but their challenge is always growth. And their forward PE is 35x, which is high. Whereas DLTR trades at 17x, driven by growth and expansion. Long-term, DLTR has earnings growth and multiple expansion and a better total return over 5-7 years than Costco.

DLTR vs. DG Likes the dollar store trade in general. Prefers DG, as it benefits from being in rural areas, away from the Targets and Walmarts. DLTR has a lot of urban competition. In the next 3-5 years, he prefers DG.

(A Top Pick Dec 12/19, Up 16%) She would buy it again. They are reformatting some of the stores and this improves basket size. It trades at a discount to Dollar General and Dollarama.

Plays well into what's happening with the pandemic and changes in consumer behaviour. Prefers Dollar General, as it's in rural areas, with no Walmarts or Costcos. DLTR has lots of competition in the city and its latest acquisition hasn't worked out well. 9% earnings growth rate, while Dollar General has 13-14% earnings growth rate.

They bought Family Dollar in 2015 but had problems integrating it, but it did double the size of DLTR. They have since integrated. DLTR trades at a discount to peers including Dollarama. It's attractively valued and resistant to a recession.

DOL vs Dollar Tree vs. Dollar General He likes Dollar General for its location and execution. Doesn't like Dollar Tree because their locations are in urban centres where there's too much competition. He prefers Dollarama over Dollar General, but likes DOL, but many DOL stores are inside malls, which is a problem now (malls are closed). He prefers DOL to Dollar Tree because they execute better; and Dollar General over Dollar Tree.

They are more insulated from online competition like Amazon. They have addressed some short term issues and it is well positioned regardless of the economic environment. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $88.05)