Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

(A Top Pick August 27/12. Down 3.29%.) Had a bit of a miss in the last quarter. Turnaround at Christina Lake is taking much longer than they thought. Doesn’t feel the current price reflects the potential. Feels there is a lot of production growth in their future.

(Market Call Minute.) Expect this will now go back to $34.

Their numbers are not doing what they should be doing. Was hoping this company was the low cost, heavy oil producer in Western Canada. It doesn’t mine for oil, it does the pipes and the steaming in the ground which is cheaper and more efficient and has less environmental impact. Just sold his holdings because cash operating costs per barrel of oil has gone from $18-$19 to $24 and he can’t figure out how they are going to come back. 3.2% dividend yield. (See Top Picks.)

Production this quarter was up by 10% but earnings were down for a number of reasons. Stock is really done nothing for the year. If you can buy it under $30, it is probably a great buy. Good name for the long-term. If we do have an erosion in the oil price over the next couple of months you might want to hold off Buying it because it may get down into the $27-$28 range. This one gives you yield, has a good balance sheet and has good growth prospects.

Consensus is that dividend is safe. The energy sector is stuck in a range for many years to come.

They have been the blue chip gem amongst the 5 we have in Canada. Their main project, the oil sands project has some of the best oil ratios. They had a little hiccup in their operations which is a buying opportunity. They used to be the go to name that would not have hiccups but now it has reversed. It is a great core holding under $30. 4% dividends and 6% growth.

Feels the growth profile of this company is better than some of the others because they are very big in SAGD and are good at it and have great, long-term properties. Have 3 properties now and expanding. Have a couple more that, in time, will come on. Growth production will be about 10% a year going out to 2020. Increased their dividend 10% this year and, if the growth production comes on, he expects them to increase their dividend 5%-10% for the next 3-4 years at least.

A very good Canadian Company. Still bearish on the gas side. Took out his positions some time ago and has recently bought back in because stock was recently put down because the spread of heavy oil vs. WTI was so great. Margins are much more attractive. Thinks you will see a lot of forecast revisions. Good time to add to it.

(A Top Pick Aug 20/12. Up 1.29%.) His thinking a year ago was that energy stocks were cheap and this one was well run with probably 8%-10% production growth over 10 years. It applies now because it really hasn’t moved so he still likes it.

Excellent long-term growth profile. This is the premier SAGD operator in terms of lowest costs. Fully integrated through its deal with ConocoPhillips (COP-N). He is looking for growth in excess of 10% a year on the volume. Company has targeted 11% for the next 10 years. Yield of 3.09% and he expects a 10% growth per year.

(A top pick June 29/12. Down 4.54%.) Struggling along with the group and he sees no reason why it should struggle. Operationally they are firing on all metrics and producing about 280,000 barrels per day. One of the best operators in the SAGD oil sands. Looking for a 10% compound annual growth over the next 10 years.

Prefers others. It is a case of how oil production will look next year and what happens to the keystone and Canada East decisions. Prefers CPG-T

Very well run oil sand company. Have some of the most economic oil sand deposits in Canada with the breakeven price of about $40-$45. Trades at a premium because it is viewed as a more quality name. Can’t see any real catalysts.

(A Top Pick Jan 3/13. Down 7.14%.) Still one of his highest conviction names. Would still recommend this. Great, deep resource base. Raised their dividend 2 years in a row, 10% each time. Good long-term holding.

(Top Pick Apr 10/12, Down 14.03%) Over time is one of the better quality energy companies out there, but energy is weak right now because global growth is weak. There is no reason to be there right now. Wait until industrial economy is picking up in the US and China.