Josef SchachterCenovus EnergyCVE.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSAug 21, 2013

Excellent company. Growing quickly. Extremely strong quarter a week or so ago, with a lot of strength coming from refining (shows the value of the integrated model). Can hold for quite some time.

Refining capacity is the crown jewel right now, with global conflicts impacting infrastructure. Phenomenal quarter. Trying to buy ATH; delayed Investor Day as a consequence. Good name, assets, and management.

Her heart belongs to CNQ, but she has no problems with CVE.

They have decades of reserves and are printing money. There will be consolidation in energy 10%. Companies are gushing cash. CVE will buy a company. Wait for oil to pullback before buying.

They know more about  Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) assets than anyone in the world, and are willing to pay one a net operating loss adjusted basis the highest multiples ever in the space. They (and Strathcona) are in control of the most valuable energy assets in North America--the Oil Sands running thermal operations.

Both are good with similar performance the past year. You can hold onto CNQ and not buy CVE, long term. The two stocks move in tandem.

This and Suncor are the blue-chips of Canadian oil. Both can access refining. Q3 and Q4 refining results will go through the roof if oil continues at these levels. Trades at 5.6x PE, when it should be 8x, so there's lots of upside. Has great upstream and downstream assets.

Loves that Canada had better dinosaurs than they had in the US. Canada's dinosaurs created 25-year-life wells, while the US ones are only 10. Separate from Iran problems, there's going to be a need for oil. Way better if it's in a friendly country (if the US can stop offending its neighbours in Canada). Yield is 2%.

Has had a great year, surging even before the US-Iran war. The sector is positive as is the price of oil which he expects to stay high because oil isn't getting out of the Middle East.

It is a great company with great assets. It is an overlooked stock so it's a good time to buy. It has heavy exposure to refining which is good. It also has exploration upside so has both the upstream and downstream components covered. He went on to explain that fully integrated companies have three components; Upstream which covers exploration and production, Midstream which is gathering, pipelines, etc., and Downstream which is refining and marketing.

Attractive valuation relative to peers. Well positioned to achieve debt targets for 2026. Improved regulatory environment. One of the deepest oil sands inventories since the MEG acquisition. Likes it a lot.

Oil is a very tricky asset to play, especially in light of the war going on. How long will oil be at these levels? Great company, one of the best to own. Canada's going in the right direction. Decent dividend, lots of capital returns ahead. A fine pick right here.

Huge clash flow generated by excellent refineries. Expects a strong Q3. They have decades of stay-flat inventory. At $70 oil, he targets $60; $80, he targets $67. Trades at 6.2X PE.

It is the cheapest large cap quality company in North America. They have been shooting the lights out with the highest quality assets in Canada. Also they have been able to exit non-performing refineries and at the same time increasing exposure to better ones while turning them around. Margins are up 200 to 300% year over year in the last quarter and he thinks this will persist. They are getting refinery exposure and best of breed highest quality oil sands assets. The time for the oil sands is now. They have one of the cheapest multiples of large cap stocks in North America. . Also they are paying down debt to very conservative levels and returning 75% of free cash flow to shareholders mostly in the form of share buybacks. He thinks that number will go to 100% next year. 
In summary it has an excellent balance sheet and management team as well as decades and decades of inventory. He sees 50 to 60% upside.
Buy 18  Hold 1  Sell1

Has downstream refining, but she's indifferent to its necessity in a company. Paid off debt from MEG acquisition faster than expected, now returning to 75% payout of FCF. Nothing wrong with it, especially in the current environment. But her favourite is CNQ.

Likes it a lot, one of the best in the business. Great run, more to go. You have to be a bit cautious because it's run so hard. Last quarter was great, continues to do really well. Nice balance of assets, including refining (which not every company has).

A lot of oil companies have fallen since the highs of March/April. He added a new, integrated name (CNQ) just this morning -- chart's more attractive, price bouncing off 200-day MA. CNQ is higher quality than CVE.

CVE is not quite there yet, as it's closing in on its 100-day MA.