Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

40.51

+1.18 (3.00%)

as of Nov 11, 2026, 9:00:00 pm Market Closed.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

We reiterate this Canadian major energy producer as a TOP PICK. The company announced it will buy out its partner’s share of the 160 mbd refinery in Ohio, with a capacity to consume 90 mbd of heavy production. We like it has aggressively been retiring debt and buying back shares, while still growing cash reserves. It trades at under 2x book. Recently reported earnings support a ROE of 25%. We continue to recommend a stop at $23, looking to achieve $33 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 2.4%

(Analysts’ price target is $32.97)

BUY

China re-opening good for energy demand.
Excellent balance sheet strength with not much debt.
Currently trading cheap relative to peers.
Very good name to own in energy sector.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It has good holdings. The energy sector is in the beginning of a long up-cycle. These cycles have periods of three month relative lows so aim to buy in one of these periods.

TOP PICK

Pledged 100% of cash flow return to shareholders.
Confidence in new CEO.
Laser focused on reducing debt.
30 year reserve life index.
Expecting meaningful share growth.
6x multiple on share price not out of question.
Good company for long term shareholders.

BUY

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

CVE’s recent quarter result was solid given the tailwind of high oil prices, and shares are now trading at 7.5x times' Forward P/E.
In the 4Q, CVE’s revenue grew 2% to $14B, missing estimates of $14.4B and EPS was $0.29 also missing the estimate of $0.61.
The balance sheet is strong, with long-term debt (excluding leases) of $8.7B, significantly reduced compared to $12B last year.
Total debt is around 1.2x times trailing twelve-month free funds flow (FFF) of $7.3B, and free cash flow grew nicely around 55% compared to $4.7B last year.
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to decline by 12%, while EPS is expected to decline by 5% in 2023.
CVE also announced a CEO transition, as the COO will now be in charge, and the old CEO would be the executive chair, we don’t think this would change the company’s fundamentals much in the near term.
The company has been actively repurchasing shares over the last two years and raising dividends as a result of operational tailwinds from high oil prices.
However, going forward the company’s performance will largely depend on oil prices.
It is priced well and has good potential, depending on what commodity prices do.
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DON'T BUY

Fear of a slowdown makes him a bit more cautious on the oil space. Would be a lot more interesting around $20. Hard to be enthusiastic on it right now.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Signs of an uptrend, but where we are right now, energy stocks are consolidating and pausing. He's much more cautious in terms of reward/risk. Sideways trading range. You could pick up on weakness, but energy won't get going until late 2024 or 2025.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate CVE as a TOP PICK. The company holds $2.4 billion in cash reserves, even after aggressively retiring debt and buying back shares. It trades at 1.8x book and only 5x cash flow. Recently reported earnings support a ROE over 20%. Production is expected to increase 3% next year and refining thruput is expected to be up 28% as no major turnarounds are planned. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $17) to $23, looking to achieve $31 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 1.8% (Analysts’ price target is $31.00)

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations by 20% and supports a ROE of 26%. They expect to increase capital expenditures next year, raising overall production that could see natural gas production boosted by 25%. They plan to continue reducing debt going forward and buy back shares. Re-start of the Toledo, OH refinery will enhance downstream revenues. It trades 9x earnings and 1.8x book. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $17, looking to achieve $30 -- potential upside over 60%. Yield 1.6% (Analysts’ price target is $29.67)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 77%) Very well run company that is paying down debt very quickly. Expecting final debt target at the end of the year. Trading at 24% cash flow yield. Expecting a 14% dividend yield (should be 10%). Share price could be $50 within the next year.

BUY

Looks fine. Valuation is lower than peers. The balance sheet is good with debt down these days. They are buying back shares and raising their dividend. They made some fine, timely purchases. A key oil play in Canada. As long as oil does well, so will CVE.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 70%) Could still double in a year at $100 oil. It has 29 years of high quality reserves and could privatize in 4 years with free cash flow of $12 billion per year. Thinks they will buy back 10% of stock next year and pay 15% in variable dividends which gives it 25% yield at today's prices. It is profoundly mis-priced. Is vulnerable to big heavy oil discounts.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Any energy stock is facing challenges given recessionary fears and lower demand. Oil will test $80 before $100. Wait on this or sell on strength.

HOLD

Believes energy companies are capital intensive business models that don't control price of commodity. Hard to know future of the business. Expect high volatility in share prices. High shareholder return for energy companies with high oil prices. Unsure on future of business (speculative).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 24/21, Up 101%) Expecting company to double share price. At $100 oil, company trading at 2.6x cash flow. Expecting company to buyback 10% of shares, rest of cash will go to dividends. Thinks a 17% dividend rate is not out of the question.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

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