Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)

46.65

-0.28 (0.60%)

as of Oct 20, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

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DON'T BUY

Fear of a slowdown makes him a bit more cautious on the oil space. Would be a lot more interesting around $20. Hard to be enthusiastic on it right now.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Signs of an uptrend, but where we are right now, energy stocks are consolidating and pausing. He's much more cautious in terms of reward/risk. Sideways trading range. You could pick up on weakness, but energy won't get going until late 2024 or 2025.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate CVE as a TOP PICK. The company holds $2.4 billion in cash reserves, even after aggressively retiring debt and buying back shares. It trades at 1.8x book and only 5x cash flow. Recently reported earnings support a ROE over 20%. Production is expected to increase 3% next year and refining thruput is expected to be up 28% as no major turnarounds are planned. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $17) to $23, looking to achieve $31 -- upside potential of 24%. Yield 1.8% (Analysts’ price target is $31.00)

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations by 20% and supports a ROE of 26%. They expect to increase capital expenditures next year, raising overall production that could see natural gas production boosted by 25%. They plan to continue reducing debt going forward and buy back shares. Re-start of the Toledo, OH refinery will enhance downstream revenues. It trades 9x earnings and 1.8x book. We recommend placing a stop-loss at $17, looking to achieve $30 -- potential upside over 60%. Yield 1.6% (Analysts’ price target is $29.67)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 77%) Very well run company that is paying down debt very quickly. Expecting final debt target at the end of the year. Trading at 24% cash flow yield. Expecting a 14% dividend yield (should be 10%). Share price could be $50 within the next year.

BUY

Looks fine. Valuation is lower than peers. The balance sheet is good with debt down these days. They are buying back shares and raising their dividend. They made some fine, timely purchases. A key oil play in Canada. As long as oil does well, so will CVE.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 05/21, Up 70%) Could still double in a year at $100 oil. It has 29 years of high quality reserves and could privatize in 4 years with free cash flow of $12 billion per year. Thinks they will buy back 10% of stock next year and pay 15% in variable dividends which gives it 25% yield at today's prices. It is profoundly mis-priced. Is vulnerable to big heavy oil discounts.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Any energy stock is facing challenges given recessionary fears and lower demand. Oil will test $80 before $100. Wait on this or sell on strength.

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HOLD

Believes energy companies are capital intensive business models that don't control price of commodity. Hard to know future of the business. Expect high volatility in share prices. High shareholder return for energy companies with high oil prices. Unsure on future of business (speculative).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 24/21, Up 101%) Expecting company to double share price. At $100 oil, company trading at 2.6x cash flow. Expecting company to buyback 10% of shares, rest of cash will go to dividends. Thinks a 17% dividend rate is not out of the question.

HOLD

Balance sheet is great. Cashflow per share growth is 41%. Reasonable valuation. Trading in line, a fine play. He prefers some smaller caps really trading at a discount like VET, ARX, TOU, CPG, and PEY.

DON'T BUY

Used to own it but didn't like their ConocoPhillips deal. They've consolidated a lot in the last 15 years. He's content owning CNQ instead.

HOLD

Energy is his top net sector exposure. Cheap. Scores near the top on price momentum and valuation, trades at 10x earnings, recent beat. Aims to be debt free by year's end. Incredible cashflows. Low capex spend. See his Top Picks.

BUY

Only large cap energy stock that owns. Sees upside of small cap energy stock embedded in large cap stock. Recent acquisition of refinery at 1.5x cash flow excellent deal. Has pledged to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders once debt reduced to zero(Q4). Getting 27.5 years of free inventory at current share price. Entire company could privatize within 3 years at current energy prices.

BUY

Doesn't own stock, but thinks company is undervalued relative to free cash flow. Outstanding oilsands operator. Expecting increased share price, dividends and share buybacks. Energy sector very undervalued.

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Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO)