Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO) Buy, Sell…

Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

11.72

-0.04 (0.34%)

as of May 14, 2024, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

1026 watching

COMMENT

If you believe the analysts, CPG will make 33 cents in the next year which is interesting upside. His fair market value for CPG is $9. Its balance sheet is falling. It had a nice earnings rally but is dropping again. How good are their earnings forecast? This could be part of a serious rally of 100-200%. Maybe, if something interesting happens in oil. These oil stocks are so cheap. He can't advise whether to bail on this stock, but also miracles happen.

DON'T BUY

Spring is seasonal strength for oil strikes before driving season. Jan.12-April 24 oil gains 10% above the benchmark, positive 12 of 15 years. He's starting to be enticed by the oil stocks. True, CPG suffers lower lows and lower highs, even today. All its moving averages are still down, but this is oversold and due for a bounce. On CPG's side is that oil is in higher demand. But for now, stay away from this.

COMMENT

Cutting production and dividend recently, but the stock price is still low. It's the ultimate contrarian pick. Something eventually will happen to revalue this stock, like somebody buys it. Cutting the dividend and paying down debt were the right decisions they've made. With crude prices rising and the WCS spread shrinking, something will eventually happen to this stock.

DON'T BUY

Two strikes against it: Canadian energy, and the name is in the penalty box because they over-promised and under-delivered. They're doing all the right things, and the assets are good, but nobody cares. It's going to lag. If you like it, buy Tourmaline, or CNQ, or Suncor, or Whitecap.

RISKY

Frustrating to own. It looks cheap on paper, with solid assets and good managers. But in the past they overspent on acqusitions without generating enough returns. They've really cut back on that approach. Now, they need to sell some assets. If oil stays in the low-$50s/60s, this has enormous upside and the dividend will gradually increase. If oil reaches $65, CPG could easily double.

COMMENT

Fundamentally, it's a bargain, but there's no guarantee of an upside. This has solid support at current levels and is a past point. It could hit $6. Exit point is $3.70 and the company may not even exist in the future. He may start buying it himself.

DON'T BUY

If WTI goes to $70? They have done a leadership change, has cut costs and has been rationalizing assets in Sask. All the right things. The dividend has been cut to virtual zero and the share buy back is helping metrics. It is no longer loved like it once was. At $70 WTI, he would rather invest in US light oil producers or Canadian heavy oil producers.

WAIT

It was a little too levered in the downturn and they are now paying the price. The assets are quite good but it is a matter of when money will flow into the energy sector. The big guys will lift first. He would not be in a rush to buy it.

HOLD

What must the price of oil be for this to see a meaningful upside? $60-65 oil. But Alberta has curtailed production. CPG is more sustainable since cutting their dividend to near-zero. Their debt-to-cash is 1.6x, which is better. Remarkably cheapo at 3.2x earnings. But they don't have good cash flow per share growth nor production growth. We've probably seen the worst. The big difference will be the TransMountain pipeline happening. Hold if you already own, but don't enter this.

RISKY

He used to own it for the dividend. Has a $7 target. Canada needs to build pipelines to get our oil to market. Canadian oil will continue to trade at a discount to WTI. He's concerned about Canadian oil; we need political leadership and a trans-Canadian pipeline.

COMMENT

Very cheap at 0.3x book. But on other hand, why is it so cheap? Cut budget and dividend, which was eating up cash flow. Now that it's happened, market could be breathing a sigh of relief. Don't put all eggs in one basket here. Fairly compelling valuation.

BUY

It looks cheap and the balance sheet is not distressed. He likes it here. The risk/reward is good. They have quality crude and get better pricing than its Alberta peers.

TOP PICK

Lot of sad stocks like this one. Worthy of a purchase. Nice double bottom of $3.80, so use that as an exit point. If it gets up to about $6, it's a "reversal of fortune" trade. Yield is 8.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $9.63)

RISKY

Tough place. Balance sheet keep improving but the yardstick keeps moving. Exceptionally cheap. Not the highest quality name in the space. But it is way oversold.

COMMENT

He owned years ago. It struggled like all oil companies. They've gradually lessened their debt and reduced exploration. They've managed production well. He isn't buying any energy. Be cautious with the dividend above 9%.

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Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)