Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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COMMENT

Likes oil over the long-term and this is a great asset. Oil has run up and he is fairly neutral on it right now and prefers natural gas. If you own you could Sell some and look to Buy it back or Hold looking for oil to go higher down the road.

COMMENT

Formed a diamond pattern from April to August followed by some easing and then took off again. Could see $35 in the short term. If it can maintain that trend it could be back up to the $47 level by the end of next year.

DON'T BUY

Popular trust because of the long life of their assets but they don't have a low-cost structure. Prefers Vermilion (VET.UN-T), which has a much cleaner balance sheet as well as a good balance between natural gas and oil and the dividend is much safer.

BUY

Likes it. You don’t have capital expenditures for next 2 years. Nice distribution stream.

BUY

Pure oil sands exposure. Made a commitment that they are going to increase debt to build the next stages of their several Syncrude projects. Dividend is reasonably safe and you will have some growth down the road.

BUY

Pure oil play based on the Syncrude oil sands.

BUY

A lot of the oil sands assets are very attractive. The reason you want to own this is the yield. Will continue to ramp up their production. Their ultimate policy is to pay out 100% of the free cash. Have just bumped the distribution and can bump it again very shortly.

HOLD

Treat this as catastrophe insurance. In the event of some catastrophic event in the Persian Gulf you could easily see crude in the $150-$200 range. Also, in the next 2 or 3 years natural gas prices will be very low which will help keep their costs down.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute.)

TOP PICK

Likes their exposure to the oil sands. Price of oil is currently higher than people expected. Alberta’s labour costs have gone down. A big cost in the oil sands is natural gas, which seems to be going lower.

HOLD

Dividend isn't great but they did raise it recently. This is a direct leverage to oil prices and says he is positive on oil, you should continue to hold. You could also consider Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T) or Arc Energy (AET.UN-T), which is a little more gas weighted but a well managed trust.

BUY

Probably one of the most leverage ways you can play if you are a really crude oil bull. One of the few trusts that were able to increase distributions. Very high fixed costs operations. Yield of under 4%.

SELL

Sell this and buy Crescent Point Energy (CPG-T)? Canadian Oil Sands has recovered as far as he thought it would. Not a bad switch. (ED. Not sure he is enamoured with Crescent Point either.)

HOLD

Payout ratio of about 48% but it's discounting $70 oil. Basically a call on oil prices. Not a lot of growth associated with it. Pretty fairly valued.

TOP PICK

Most of their CapX is behind them. Have unhedged exposure to higher oil prices. Management announced costs per barrel are going to be higher. When they report July 27 should be a really good entry point.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)