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Canadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOBUYAug 11, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 06, 2026. Market Open.
When asked to compare these four large companies if the price of oil drops, he felt that CNQ is a phenomenal company that's hard to beat. Suncor has been a turnaround story for the past two years. The quarterly reports have been much better. Rich Kruger is moving on to be the Executive Chair. If the price of oil does drop Imperial might be the best defensive play.
Editor's Note; For Cenovus, please refer to his previous answer.
Yes, he'd put new $$ in today. Buying stocks at 52-week highs isn't necessarily bad for your wealth (you'll actually do better than consistently buying at 52-week lows). Possible (but he can't say for sure) to retrace to mid-$50s if Iran war were to end.
On normalized oil prices, high single-digit FCF yield. Low-cost operator, decent production growth, strong balance sheet. Excellent capital allocation.
Oil reserves in a safe haven. Well run. If peace breaks out in the Middle East, all the energy names could retrace somewhat; if conflict escalates, then oil will run and you should take profits along the way.
If you're looking at a 3-10 year investment, by all means buy some energy here. But if you're looking for a 3-6 month trade, you have to be careful with these politically charged components of the market.
He can't tell you where the price of oil is going. He does know that demand continues to increase. One of the best capital allocators in the O&G space. Decades and decades of reserves. Increased dividend for 25-26 consecutive years.
For a generalist, long-term investor, trust the management of the quality leader. When oil turns down, this name will hold up better. If there was a pullback for no good reason, he'd buy more. Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
The question was on his preference between Suncor and CNQ. He would side with Suncor since it has more upside and CNQ's price is approaching fair value. Suncor has underperformed over the past week with the CEO stepping down. He had guided the company to a major turn-around. If the next CEO can continue to run the company as well as it has been running then he sees a 40% upside two years out.
In Q2-2025, the company generated an adjusted EPS of $0.71, compared to last year’s $0.88; the decline was largely due to weak commodity prices. However, CNQ managed to beat expectations of around $0.63. CNQ also returned around $1.6B to shareholders during the quarter ($1.2B in dividends and $0.4B in share repurchase). CNQ's business continues to remain robust and sustainable, and management believes the company can achieve breakeven in the low to mid-US$40 per barrel range, at which level CNQ could generate enough funds to cover maintenance capex and dividends. CNQ’s management is committed to continuing with its shareholder-friendly policy while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. Though there is some volatility in financial results due to the fluctuation of commodity prices, but we think CNQ continues to be a high-quality cash cow with attractive dividend growth prospects over time.
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