Stockchase Opinions

Dan RohintonCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ.TOBUYJul 13, 2026

It took a while for the TransMountain pipeline to get full. How long does it take to build a pipeline. CNQ is the first he'd buy and the last he'd sell. Very well managed, has little debt and returns capital to shareholders. Don't own it for the hopes that a new pipeline will be built this decade.

$60.95

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$60.95

As of Jul 13, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY

It took a while for the TransMountain pipeline to get full. How long does it take to build a pipeline. CNQ is the first he'd buy and the last he'd sell. Very well managed, has little debt and returns capital to shareholders. Don't own it for the hopes that a new pipeline will be built this decade.

TRADE

Long-term outlook for crude oil is bearish. When he looks at the forward price of crude past 2030, it's in the $50s (and could get into $40s depending on supply dynamics).

Short term, sure, buy dips in the energy space. Is this a name he'd be comfortable buying here and holding for 5-10 years? Absolutely not.

BUY

A lot of oil companies have fallen since the highs of March/April. He added just this morning -- chart's attractive, price bouncing off 200-day MA. 

TOP PICK

Likes it at almost every investment cycle. (She'd choose it as a Top Pick on every Market Call appearance if they let her ;)  Premium assets, premium management, low decline rate. Consistent cashflow.

Makes $$ when oil is $50. Higher oil price means that it can pay down debt faster and buy back more shares. A stock to own for the next 50 years. Yield is 4.27%, and dividend is growing. 

(Analysts’ price target is $70.97)
HOLD

Oil prices are everywhere, and you have to be comfortable with that. Probably not a bad idea to buy when oil is ~$70 and everyone thinks the worst has passed. Trades in line with peers. Balance sheet in very good shape. 25% FCF from 2025-2027, on 3% production growth. Nice dividend. Even if oil goes down, it's profitable down to WTI at $50. 

If you think oil's going down, you don't want to buy this stock. It's a coin toss right now with oil at $70. There are easier risk/reward places than oil stocks right now.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 15/25, Up 46%)

One of the best-managed companies in the world. Their oil business is stable, but their gas side is overlooked. They are a top-3 gas producer in Canada. Good cash flow will continue and allow them to buyback stock and shrink their debt. 

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 14/26, Down 4.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with CNQ has triggered its stop at $60.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  When combined with previous guidance, this will result in a net investment gain of 3%.  

WAIT

Unique company. Tends to be very cyclical, but its counter-cyclical framework gives it a huge edge. Amazing business that gushes cash. Loves it. Robust dividend. As balance sheet comes down, will allocate more capital to share buybacks, and that will be accretive to EPS. 

If you own, sit tight and let it work. If coming in fresh, wait for a bigger pullback.

BUY
As a long-term hold

He won't bet on commodities on bad news. They grow production every year and watch costs. They have giant reserves. Long term, a headwind will be growing demand for EVs, as in China. Oil will eventually revert to $50-60 and this stock will correct a bit. CNQ can grow production 3-5% a year and its dividend 5-10%. He will own this long term. Is doing all the right things.

PARTIAL SELL

He's trimmed a bit. If oil comes back, it will retrace quite heavily. 

BUY

Owns in the income growth fund. It is very well run and has a huge reserve base in Alberta. Long term it is fine for lower and higher oil prices.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Short term, what happens to the oil price and in the Middle East is going to kick these stocks around. Likes its low breakeven point. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 27/25, Up 63%)

Still doing all the right things. Benefiting from the unanticipated increase in price of oil. Still not that expensive at 12-13x PE, with 8% FCF yield.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/25, Up 62%)

She will own this for the next 30 years. Very bullish. She likes CNQ at $60 oil, so $100 oil today is a bonus. Management is discipline, their Oil Sands are long-life with low decline, and have a strong dividend records. They make money even at low $50 oil. She added more shares recently.