Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

Recent M&A not being rewarded. Expecting market to digest Ranger acquisition. Expecting better performance in 2024. High quality increase in Eagleford starting to be understand. ~$9 share price not unreasonable. $14 share price also possible. Will continue to own shares. Would buy more shares if possible. Very bullish. 

Impacted by wildfires. Acquisition of Ranger got them into US, but also increased leverage quite a bit. Will have to concentrate on debt reduction. Has promised fairly high portion of free cashflow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. Fairly attractive at current prices, but better choices in the sector. Yield is 1.7%.

We like BTE better these days. It was in the dog house for a long time (high debt, dividend elimination) but has managed to get things back on track. It has re-started a dividend, and is very cheap. Debt is still higher than most peers, however, and it made a $1.3B acquisition this year while the rest of the sector focused on paying down debt. We do like WCP 'better', but for diversification we think BTE becomes more interesting if it goes below $5.
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Very confident in holding name.
Large ownership position.
Trading at 39% free cash flow yield.
Recent acquisition misunderstood by the market.
At least 10 years of high quality inventory.
CEO recent bought 900,000 shares.
Expecting a ~$14 share price.

Reacceleration from higher crude prices. If oil continues to hang in amidst current supply/demand issues, BTE will do very well. Cashflow per share continues to ramp up.

The oil and gas business is still important to Canada and even though it has become undervalued, it will still be around even with the switch to renewables. Baytex is fine but he prefers the bigger companies, and owns CNQ.

Likes prospects of energy business right now.
Expansion into Texas a good addition to inventory.
Current share price undervalued.
TMX pipeline expansion will be good for business. 

Another cheap stock of 3-4x cashflow, he'd be a buyer. Concerns about debt going into 2020, but it's been largely repaired to reach "investment grade". Great assets. Initiated a small dividend of 1%, starting to buy back stock. 

Short-term, tactical opportunity in the energy space. Money is flowing from AI into energy. Oil trading above $80 again, so technical uptrend. Value 5/10, fundamentals 4/10. Better options for new money. If you hold at a loss, ride it out a bit longer to see if you can recoup more of your losses.

Meaningful acquisition, drilling results should be ready soon. At higher oil prices, it has the highest free cashflow yield he can find. Serious upside. 10% of his fund.

Is reducing his oil exposure, especially small stocks like BTE. It's also not a low-cost producer.

Are very levered to oil prices, so if those prices rice, BTW will move up. But if oil falls, so will BTE. He prefers natural gas, because it can sustain itself through different economic environments. Among oil, he prefers names bigger than BTE.

Will continue to hold shares in company.
Major correlation in oil prices.
Solid assets with decent management team.

Didn't like this for a long time because of its balance sheet, but they have turned things around. If oil stays at these levels, its balance sheet isn't bad. Pays good shareholder returns. 35% production growth ahead. It's improving.

The chart is in a downward trend whereas most other energy stocks are trading sideways. He traded it 1 1/2 years ago. He doesn't know the fundamental reasons for the downward trend but investors should look for a base before considering buying.