Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

Great job of repositioning. Had a debt problem and faced with falling oil price. Sold off Eagle Ford for a pretty good amount, and paying down debt significantly. Once in net cash position, will then use 75% of cashflow for shareholder returns. Expects significant share buybacks, roughly 20% over next year. That should bring share price to $5. But then they need to do something.

Doesn't have as much inventory (only 10-12 years) as they need to gain relevance. Should acquire some stranded small caps.

Huge announcement last week of divesting in US to focus on Canada. As a result, will have ~$900M net cash. He expects lion's share to be used for share buybacks. Mispriced. One hindrance is less inventory depth compared to Canadian names in the patch. So for now, deserves its discount.

He's a bit hesitant on the price of oil. Prefers natural gas.

The deal looks good and will put BTE in a net-cash position, which should improve investor confidence. BTE will now be able to focus on its Canadian operations. It will provide guidance when the deal closes. All-in, this very well could be the catalyst to get investors interested in the stock again. Debt has been coming down prior to this sale, but now the company will be in very strong financial shape and 'should' get de-risked as a result.
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Focus is more on heavy oil and shale assets. Q3 earnings beat estimates. Stock's down 17% over the last year. Positives on operational efficiencies, strong FCF, disciplined debt reduction (though debt's still high). Moves with volatile oil prices. High-beta name. Analysts on the street rate it a Hold, and that's reasonable if you're comfortable with the risk.

Instead, she owns CNQ, ENB, and WCP.

He doesn't have any intelligence on what's weighing on the stock. Trump wants lower oil prices, so he hasn't owned any of the producers for a long time. Some great assets, room to grow through acquisition. He'd never buy on the basis of a potential takeover.

He's sticking with the midstream companies -- better cashflow profiles with more stable and consistent cashflow, reasonable valuations.

Has gone through lots of turmoil. Talk of selling its Eagle Ford assets. Split between Canadian heavy oil and lighter oil on one hand, and Eagle Ford shale. That sale would be a catalyst, making it a pure-play in Canada.

Tricky, because it used to be a $60 stock. Lots of missteps. Cancelled dividend for a while. Difficulty meeting expectations. Stock fell off a cliff. Looks much better now. Had a lot of debt, but has now improved balance sheet. Restarted dividend. Legacy sentiment is a stigma. 

Producers always lead the commodity. So you'd look at this name for guidance on natural gas. The terrible downtrend on the chart is being challenged. Hoping that $2 level is a bottom going back to 2021, and a place "to hang your hat" -- you're not sure what the future holds, but you think the worst is over.

He loves this kind of setup. The story's still a bit negative, but someone's buying it. The price action always has more information than you know, it's trying to tell you something, there is interest there. A good risk here. See his Top Picks.

The commodity is its main catalyst and it has been range bound for at least six months. There are better companies in the space. He quoted the common saying: Let your winners run and cut your losses.

It's down because of the fall in oil prices, pure and simple. He sold this around $4. The stock will excel if oil returns to $70+, but not at $60. He will revisit this at better oil prices later.

Drawdown 100% connected to price of oil. More debt than average. Risk-off market. Totally fine on liquidity. Deep value, but needs oil at $65-70 to really start humming.

Eliminated dividend in 2015, reinstated a smaller one last summer. Has since bought back 11% of shares. Doesn't generally earn its cost of capital, and so it trades at a discount. De-leveraging balance sheet, though still not investment grade. Chart's making lower lows.

They executed in their drilling. There's been huge multiple contraction among small/mid-caps. He exited around $3.85-3.90. Shares are in an air pocket now, falling on no natural buyers (energy is out of favour). Stock is cheap, given cash flow. They pay half that cash to buy back shares. Are better stocks than this, but wouldn't rule out buying this again.

Likes the energy space, so he'd be OK with buying this name. Pipelines to the West Coast have opened up. His play is through CVE.

Oil is down, which doesn't help. The budget shows a slight decline in production from year end exit rates, so investors may be worried that all the spending ($1.2B) is not going to boost actual average production rates. BTE also updated its five-year plan, which looks OK to us with a planned reduction in debt. But the sector remains out of favour overall right now. 
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