Baytex Energy Corp (BTE.TO)

A more leveraged company and this is his problem. Almost 1 to 1 ratio of asset to debt. They won’t see volumes grow into 2018/19 so they need to a increase in oil prices. The balance sheet is why you stay away from it.

Despite the fact that we see WTI up to $57 and Brent over $60, the Canadian producers are not reflecting those price levels. In fact, the differential has widened. A lot of Canadian energy producers are down, and she doesn't have a lot of exposure. Feels this one is more highly levered than some of the others. She would rather own a very low-cost producer with a very strong balance sheet.

(A Top Pick March 28/17. Up 8%.) 6.625% Bonds maturing in 2022. The biggest challenge is that they have to lower their debt balance.

Oil stocks have a very strong seasonality from about mid- January until approximately May of each year. This has not reached its period of seasonal strength yet. It’s drifting lower. You want to see the stock form a base pattern between now and January, which will be the tip that the stock will break out of its downward trend and start to move on the upside.

Energy is tough. When it rolled over in 2014, there was a 66% decline. At $26 a barrel, oil reversed and there was a one-year rally, quite similar to what happens when a bubble bursts. The difficulty is that the industry has changed. When the price goes up, production can come on pretty quickly with fracing. Look at these as trades, not some structural long-term bull market. If you are going to invest in oil, you want to buy one that has been able to get better while everybody else has been struggling. The 150-day moving average on this one is falling. He would pick a point below the price it is trading at now, such as $3.50, and use that as a Stop/Loss.

Has very low energy weightings in her portfolios. Even though energy prices have risen, there is not a lot of visibility in what may play out in the next 6-12 months. This is more levered than the other companies. She wants a very strong balance sheet.

It will be hit by tax loss selling. Be careful. There are also balance sheet concerns. Their operations may not throw off much cash flow. This is a high beta stock.

This had a pretty nasty move through 2014-2015. Oil had a peak in 2014, and this fell along with all the other oil stocks. Since then, it has been basing along with oil. In the base, without a break out, he wouldn't be a buyer.

Recently started to show up on his radar. Got hit with the rest of natural gas stocks but it’s been around for a long time and very well managed. They own other stocks in this sector but would consider this one.

This is an oily stock, and has a history of moving higher from approximately late January through until May/June of each year. Chart shows the stock has been drifting lower since the beginning of the year. His preference would be into one of the gassy stocks.

He would avoid this. They will really shine in a higher commodity price, because they will be able to generate cash flow above and beyond their interest payment, to deploy into the ground and grow. Trading at a premium multiple, 6.6X versus the average of 6.2 of the intermediates in Canada.

Has been in the hurricane in Eagle Ford, have a huge debt, and with the recent increase in oil, there has been about a 10% pop in the share price. Buy, Sell, Hold or Short? At this point in time, he would not go into this. They have a fairly big debt position. They don’t manage their Eagle Ford operations, but own them with Marathon which is doing all of the operations. Any time oil ramps up, their leverage is going to help them out, but it also goes the other way as well.

A 6.625% bond maturing in 2021. Made a big acquisition in the Eagle Ford of Texas. You are getting nothing for the heavy oil business in Canada. If push came to shove, as the debt holder, he will get the Eagle Ford asset if it is ever restructured.

(Market Call Minute) A challenged balance sheet. Get something with a better balance sheet because you might have to hold it for some time.

There is a lot of misinformation on oil investment. People think oil fields continue to pump oil regardless. This is a diminishing resource, so if you don’t spend the money up front for exploration and well development, production declines. Inventories in the US are declining, and the money hasn’t been spent upfront. Often, it’s 1 or 2 years of money spent to develop the necessary resources, and it actually returns as production. We may be facing a situation where we are more short of oil than we think.