
TSE:BCE
A lot rides on the sustainability of the dividend. 10 1/2% is very attractive for a blue chip Canadian company and should support the stock, but there is downside if they cut the dividend. Interest rate cuts should also help. The P/E's of Canadian telecom companies are higher than around the world and there are higher payout ratios.
He's in a bit of a conundrum right now given how far it's come down. Yield is now in excess of 10%, which is usually a big warning sign. Dividend is frozen to be able to fund recent US acquisition; first time in a long time they've done that. Company probably loath to cut the dividend; MFC did it, and was in the doghouse for years. If he found a horse with a better total return, he'd switch.
Telecom industry is seeing more competition and fighting for market share. None of the telcos will see much margin expansion in the near term.
Tough to be a telecom in Canada, so it's moving beyond our borders with its latest acquisition. CRTC is often overbearing. Capex is not bad in the concentrated GTA, but increases substantially as you go across our big and somewhat underpopulated country. Telus is in the same spot. Hard to hold over the next little while.
Overdone at these levels, will probably bounce over the next 3-6 months. Interest rates coming down should help.
Makes sense to take the loss to offset other gains, consider getting back in after the waiting period. Thinks it can maintain its dividend. Pays a really nice dividend, and if you need that to live your life, you many not want to sell.
One of his favourite investing lessons: In 2008, the Teachers Pension Plan was taking this out at $41 + 1 share, above today's level and pre-5G. Didn't sell then, because his mentor said that if the assets are good, then the management is temporary. The market hates what management has done, but they now have built a 5G network and the investments of the last 10 years have made this company worth more than 10 years ago. He's happy to buy this under $40. There could be a change of government next year. It's undervalued now. True, he doesn't like the recent US acquisition, but they can apply lessons learned in building 5G here to there, the U.S. but the selling has been overdone.
(Analysts’ price target is $44.61)The sell-off is overdone. They already pay 8%, so do they need to grow that dividend? Pausing the growth is prudent. Also, divesting from major league sports and investing in fibre makes sense (most of that sports money will pay for the fibre company). No, BCE is not headed for disaster.
We have some comments posted on the deal today. For now, with a 10% decline in the stock, we would hold. But the company may have lost credibility here, and with the dividend set to be flat for awhile we think it may struggle a while longer. But we would prefer not to sell into the 'shock' of the news.
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He won't add now. The dividend is over 10%; the company says it's safe, but the market disagrees, as shares decline. It may make sense for BCE to cut the dividend to pay down debt, but he's comfortable owning this. It's likely bottoming now, but don't buy it now to collect the dividend for the next 5 years (because it could get cut). No, he doesn't like the US acquisition and hopes management sees value in it.