Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) (ATD.B.TO)

BUY

An amazingly well run company doing well with organic and non-organic growth. The Imperial Oil acquisition was accretive. Fund managers are having to sell these consumer staples stocks to chase those that are moving. In the long run nothing has run in this investment thesis.

WATCH

It looks like the US broader index. There is some definite technical resistance in the $60 area. If the stock breaks out to the upside it could be very bullish. Consolidations are perfectly natural.

COMMENT

A terrific Canadian success story. A serial acquirer of other companies in the convenience store industry in Canada and the US, and recently Europe. A great part of sales is gasoline. Low prices give a low margin and is very competitive. Their biggest merchandise product is tobacco, 40%. In North America people are smoking less and less all the time. Management has done a great job, but it remains to be seen how these acquisitions are going play out. He has stayed away because he doesn’t like the tobacco business.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Great valuation. Have been growing through acquisition, but is one of the few that has been able to pull it off.

HOLD

He has liked the name for a long time. It is starting to round off a bit and it is mainly due to valuation. It is 20 times earnings on a forward basis. It is at the high end of its PE range. Long term it is fine, but near term you want to use a stop loss in case it continues to fall.

WATCH

One of the darlings of the TSX via growth by acquisition. It is always difficult to reconcile a high multiple stock with low organic growth. It should be able to maintain this multiple if they continue to acquire successfully. It gets harder and harder to move the needle, however. The fundamental business is what you have when the music stops. He is looking at it because it has come down a bit.

HOLD

Have made the transformational acquisition they have been looking for, for the last decade. Got all the Shell stations in Eastern Canada for $2.4 billion. Oil and gas companies don’t really want to be in the business of running thousands of retail gas stations in the country. The fact that they have done a really big deal and there is some pressure on the share price at the moment does not take away from the fact that this is the one Canadian retailer that has been an enormous success in the US and now in Europe.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 16/15. Up 25.53%.) The integrateds, in Canada, US and Europe are trying to shore up their balance sheets and using the low energy prices to sell the convenience stores that don’t have the gas stations. There is a rumour that they are close to buying Sunoco stores, so there appears to be more targets than there were a year ago. Can see another 15% in this for the following year.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Well managed. They bought some Esso gas stations yesterday. They grow by acquisition. She does not own it because it is always trading at a high multiple. You could own it if it pulled back severely.

BUY

Convenience stores and gas stations. They partially benefit from low oil prices. A very acquisitive company. Just purchased an Irish company with gas stations, so they are moving into Western Europe in a big way. They can find growth opportunities anywhere in the world. Always trades at an expensive multiple. A company that you are going to have to pay up for it, but it is worth while. Have a low dividend, which they can increase.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 2/15. Up 26.85%.) Benefits from lower gasoline prices in 2 ways. Margins are fatter and there is more driving going on. They are also talking about an acquisition and have been looking at a lot of files. Usually the stock goes up as soon as they announce one. Dividend yield of 0.44%.

COMMENT

A great name and has done extremely well. Great chart and is in the consumer staples space, making it a very defensive name in the tough environment we are in and that we will be in going forward. Likes this going forward.

COMMENT

A fabulous company. They are into 2 businesses, convenience stores and gas stations. The 2 are largely interconnected. Likes this business very much. The outlook is very good for this company.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Outstanding retailer and has made some very astute international acquisitions. Likes this long-term and would be a buyer on a pullback.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Feb 13/15, Up 29.69%) Convenience stores. They just bought a chain in Ireland. It has come a long way and done very well, but it still makes sense to buy it.

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