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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)

TOP PICK
Nickel and copper has been getting a lot of the attention. Big merger in Russia will replace this company as the 2nd largest producer. Increasing production.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Model price is $63. A positive 31% differential. This would be a great buy at $44.60.
BUY
Even with aluminium prices down over the last quarter, this company is trading at 8 X estimated next year’s earnings. Own a lot of the bauxite. Very cheap power contracts.
HOLD
This stock is tied in with the price of aluminium and, like all metals, it has come down quite a bit. It's probably due for a rally and would use that as an exit.
BUY
A lot of their issues from the operational side have been solved. Highly leveraged to the smelting side. People are expecting the consumer's product business to be sold. Recently had a share buyback.
BUY
It is a good buy at this price. He is a long time holder of this stock.
SELL
Aluminum prices have fallen. They may bounce back. This is a good time to reduce your holdings.
BUY
Involved in large merger in 2004-2005 and was highly leveraged for this. They may get rid of some of their products. maybe puce competion. Looks interesting for long term. Very focused company.
WAIT
A little expensive. With the seasonal pullback, would wait for a while.
BUY
There are a lot of good fundamentals in the aluminum industry. Earnings this year could be over $7 and possibly in the $8’s next year.
DON'T BUY
Peaked at about $64 in May and pulled back into the mid-$40. Only able to get back to about $54 in the summer rally and that rally failed. Market is telling us that it doesn't believe the earnings are sustainable.
BUY
This is a stock that you can hold for the long-term. It looks like a demand for aluminum is going to continue to rise in 2007. The weakness is creating a buying opportunity.
BUY
This level is pretty attractive. There have been rumours that they could be taken over and that would put them in the mid-$60's. This is one metal base play that you can stay. Economically sensitive.
WEAK BUY
Have good businesses, but have never earned the returns on them that he would have expected. Have things underway to improve profitability which he thinks will work. The own some very valuable assets such as aluminum smelters with power contracts. May come under a bit of pressure in the short-term.
BUY
Has had the good results of late, but he is becoming concerned that the market is looking at this as fully priced. Will probably have to work hard to make a lot of money from here. Will probably be a market performer from here.
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