Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)

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104 watching

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 18/06. Up 8.9%.) Likes the longer-term demand for aluminum. One of the few material stocks that could do very well.

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BUY

Was buying this today at $53.60. The outlook for aluminum looks better because the Chinese look like they are going to swing from being a net exporter to a net importer. Way less than 10 X cash flow and a cheap valuation.

DON'T BUY

Not a big fan of aluminum. The price of this commodity hasn’t been one of the market leaders. Also a commodity that is produced in excess in China.

TOP PICK

Has been ignored in the metals area, but they’ve done some very positive things. Have an energy agreement for a long-term source of energy in South Africa for a large smelter. Earnings could be going up from $5 through $8 in the next couple of years.

BUY

Has been in a trading range for a while and is now coming off the lower part of the trading range. Will probably advance to the upper end of the trading band and probably break out.

COMMENT

There’s lots of capacity coming on board. Energy costs affect them a great deal.

BUY

Sells at about 5.5 X next year's cash flow, which is reasonable value. Given the scarcity of good metal stocks in Canada, this is one he would buy.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 26/06. Up 8.7%.) Hasn't been a lot of interest in aluminum.

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BUY

Has been a laggard, but is moving up nicely. Outlook for aluminum looks decent.

TOP PICK

Just announced an amazing 3rd quarter. Expects aluminum prices will be going up 5%-6% and demand is expected to go 6%-7% next year. Good price.

COMMENT

They have been hurt by aluminum prices coming off. Electricity prices were not as strong this summer, which helped the stock price go up. Have decent demand, not great demand. A takeover candidate at some point.

BUY

Have gone through some reorganization. Good company. Slimmed down their operations. Anything under $50 is a Buy range.

DON'T BUY

Has been a disappointment in the last few months. A great company to own longer-term. Very conservatively run. There is no scarcity of aluminum, and the price of power in Asia can be quite cheap. Doesn't see a lot of movement from here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A top Pick June 26/06. Down 3.5%.) Still likes. Really run by the aluminum price. Feels that aluminum will go higher.

BUY

A very conservatively managed mining company. Strong balance sheet. Has global scale. Aluminum has a higher natural demand than some of the other commodities. Trading at about 7.5 X earnings, so it's cheap.

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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)