Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)

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COMMENT

Trading at reasonable valuations at around 12 X earnings, with a forecast of 8 X earnings.

HOLD

If you own, hold and sell into strength. You have seen the best metal prices.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 17/06. Down 11.4%.) Reported great 2nd quarter results. The Kitimat expansion has been announced which is positive. This is a decent entry point if you don't own. Earnings should be very strong in 2007.

HOLD

Has great fundamentals right now. If you're looking out to the end of this economic cycle, this is a good place to be.

TOP PICK

Just reported stellar results. Just announced a $1.8 billion expansion at Kitimat. This will solidify its power advantage. Trading at just over 5 X next year’s earnings, which is a good opportunity. Aluminum has been the laggard in metals. Forecasts are that demand growth will exceed supply growth over the next 3 years.

BUY

Likes it when it gets down to this level. Under $50 would be ideal. Cheap valuation at 6 X cash flow. Very much cheaper than its own history. Aluminum didn't get as crazy as the other metals but is economically sensitive. Buy with a view that you will be out of it in two years.

DON'T BUY

Aluminum has lagged all the other metals as there is a significant amount available. A very high cost metal to smelt which results in poorer cash flow. They could continue to lag. Would prefer to own copper, zinc and nickel related stocks.

BUY

Some analysts are stating that metal prices are far too low. On that basis, it is extraordinary cheap.

DON'T BUY

Has already seen what, he suspects, is going to be its high for the cycle. Has to drop quite a ways before he would be interested again.

BUY

Reported excellent results. Thinks it's finally got its act together. Whenever he sees companies raising dividends, it sends a signal that they are quite comfortable.

WEAK BUY

Cheaper than Alcoa (AA-N) with a better growth profile. Giving very nervous about the cyclical stocks.

BUY

Participated in the roaring market for base metals in the spring and has fallen off 20% or more since then. Efficiencies from their French acquisition are only starting to flow through. Feels aluminum pricing is going to continue strengthening because of demand from Asia. They have cheaper electricity for production than most other producers.

BUY

Not bullish on the metals in general. Have a lot of undervalued assets. Have recently been buying this and comfortable owning it. It is getting late in the metals section, so be cautious.

BUY

One of her long time favourites. Ran up on takeover rumours. Excellent long-term prospects.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 17/06. Down 7%.) Would still buy under $50. Very well positioned to benefit from the increased demand in commodities.

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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)