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Martin Hubbes, CFAAlcan AluminumAL.TOWEAK BUYSep 01, 2006

Have good businesses, but have never earned the returns on them that he would have expected. Have things underway to improve profitability which he thinks will work. The own some very valuable assets such as aluminum smelters with power contracts. May come under a bit of pressure in the short-term.

Martin Hubbes, CFA

Owned

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$50.35

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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(A Top Pick Nov 23/05. Up 130% at the point that Rio Tinto (RTP-N) acquired it.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 15/07. Up 52%.) Chose it because it was a takeover target. It was acquired last fall.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top pick Nov 14/06. Up 80%)

TRADE

There is a takeover bid in play. (caller asked how) To sell your shares, you can tender your shares, (call your broker), or sell on the market. Recommends tendering.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick Oct 18/06. Up 115%.) Being acquired and trading very close to the takeover price, so he sold his holdings.

HOLD

If you're a short term trader, you've made an excellent return, take some profits. If you are a long term investor, hold.

COMMENT

Has been a long term favorite of hers. Has just had a big pop, and they sold some.Expects the company to go higher.They've maintained a conservative balance sheet.

HOLD

Early on in the process of a bidding war. If you own, continue to hold. Main risk is a Pac Man defence where Alcan tries to buy Alcoa (AA-N). You might lock in a bit of profit at this point.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 19/06. Up 92.5%.) Take some of your money off the table.

SELL

Stock had a good top because of the offer from Alcoa (AA-N). Whatever happens to the price of aluminum in the near term will not be based on fundamentals. A lot of variables are going on, so there is no assurance the stock will go higher. If you own, take some partial profits.

BUY

In the case ALcan and BCE there are various parties who are interested, and there isn't much downside. Could go a fair bit higher, if other players come in.

BUY

Alcoa (AA-N) is trying to acquire them. Feels the whole aluminum industry is going to turn out quite well. Lower operating costs.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 23/06. Up 23.2%.) Long-term there is a great demand for aluminum. Could be a takeover candidate.

BUY

You always want to trade Alcan. This is a hard one to “buy and hold”. His model price is $73.14. That's an 18% positive differential.

DON'T BUY

Getting closer to the end of the cycle in commodities. Would be a little cautious on aluminum. Some speculation on consolidations, but doesn't expect there will be a lot more money made on this stock.

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Martin Hubbes, CFAAlcan AluminumAL.TOWEAK BUYSep 01, 2006

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