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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)

BUY
A cyclical business and very strong in its sector. If you start to see a downturn, get out quickly.
TOP PICK
Came off on the earnings warning that it made in early January. There was also some confusion over the spin off of Novelis. Less levered in terms of its financial indebtedness, but more levered to the commodity. Feels that aluminum has the best fundamentals of any of the metals commodities.
DON'T BUY
Their costs are in a rising currency and their revenues are in a declining currency, so there's a margin squeeze. Energy prices have also risen. Really have nothing going for them.
BUY
In an excellent position to be buying at this point. There has been a sell off with the spin off of their rolling division. Outlook for aluminum is very bullish and could see it trading at the $0.90/0.95 level in the next 52 weeks. Also, any decrease in energy prices will be another catalyst.
BUY
Has become more oligopolistic over the last couple of years and that's been aided by the Peschne acquisition. Good management. Sold the spinoff and reinvested in Alcan. Aluminum looks relatively good.
DON'T BUY
Have yet to capture the spin-off on their balance sheet. Model price is around $51. Finding value elsewhere.
DON'T BUY
There has been some correction in the metals stocks that has washed over a number of companies. This one has been one of the weaker performers over the last year. Energy costs have hurt aluminum production.
HOLD
Spinning off their rolled products division. Expects it to go higher. Aluminum has been disappointing as a commodity. China is changing some of the rules that will make it harder for them to export aluminum which will benefit Alcan.
TRADE
Spinoff of Novelis is probably constructive for the Alcan shareholders.
TRADE
Of the commodity stocks, it has been a huge disappointment. Unlike other commodities which are in short supply in China, aluminum is actually exported. Starting to look at this to see if it is cheap compared to others. Haven't reached a conclusion yet. Spin off should be worth looking at.
BUY
One of his favourite base metal companies. New management has done a great job in restructuring and re-focusing. The spin off will be a relatively high dividend paying stock. The drop in price creates a good buying opportunity.
BUY
Once the spinoff occurs, it will give Alcan a little more leverage to the upside. Statistically, it looks the cheapest of the majors. Outlook for aluminum looks decent. Should see one last cyclical move up.
BUY
When Novelis is spun off, he doesn't expect much change in the share price.
TOP PICK
Just spun off their products division. 1% yield. Aluminum prices should go higher over the next few years.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 20/04. Up 3%.) When the spin-out happens in January, the valuation of the new Alcan should be positive.
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