Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)

0.00

-0.00 (0.00%)

104 watching

TRADE

With it down here, this should be a buying price. However, being down here makes him really nervous and he doesn't know why it's down here.

DON'T BUY

Look for a catalyst on stocks like this by asking "Is it very cheap for every $ of sales that they are generating (cash flow) and has it turned a corner?". The chart on this one looks like dead money for the last 12 months. Look for a price movement or dividend yield.

BUY

Likes it because they've moved off $2.8 billion of debt into a spin-out, so the balance sheet is much better. Has hundreds of millions of cost savings coming in through their acquisition of Pechene. Trading at a 10% discount to its peers, such as Alcoa (AA-N) yet has much benefits coming from the synergies of cost cutting. Better growth prospects.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 31/05. Down 17%.) Has been very disappointing. Have bought more, but watching very closely. Aluminum has been a lagging commodity. Good value here.

BUY

Likes the longer term outlook for aluminum. The spin-out of Novelis created a correction, but there has also been disappointment because of weaker than expected earnings. Going forward, this could turn around. Feels the book value is still around $27.50. Looking for earnings to come in around the $3.15 range this year and next could be above $4.

BUY

Just bought some. The only proviso is he doesn't have the most recent balance sheet after the spin-off. Model price is around $41.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 30/04. Down 20%.) 1.8% yield. Pechene acquisition was a transforming deal. Aluminum is economically sensitive, but it will have its day.

BUY

It's not only a smelting company, but also a packaging company. On the smelting side, they're in a very good position because most of their electricity has been hedged. The issue is their packaging side and whether they can make that a higher margin business. Have a large amount of good will on the books, so expect they will have to take a write-down. At a good level now, but be prepared to hold.

HOLD

Has been a real disappointment even with the Novelis (NVL-T) spin off. Aluminum prices are pretty good. Have done all the proper things, but can't seem to catch a break on it. Still feels the long term story is pretty good.

BUY

He's constructive on the commodity plays, particularily the metals. An outstanding company in the resource sector. You can buy this and hold for the next couple of years. Extremely well run.

BUY

Sees a great future for this company. Aluminum is part of their outlook that mining should do better. Attractive at the current levels for both long term holders and traders.

BUY

Have seen good strength in aluminum even though the price recently sold off a bit. Should be able to generate some fairly significant cash flow this year. Has been under pressure because they have not been able to deliver additional earnings right away fro the Pechene acquisition.

WEAK BUY

The price of aluminum hasn't started to struggle a lot and demand continues to be out there. Might be getting a little bit toppy at this stage. Likes their Pechene acquisition. Price of energy will cause them concern.

DON'T BUY

Has been a big disappointment. Price of aluminum has done well, but this stock has not. It has to do with company specific problems. Management has continued to over-promise and under-deliver.

BUY

Has been disappointing. Have been buying through this period. Aluminum has been lagging the other metals although it did have a breakout in the last couple of weeks. Still feels it can supply a good rate of return in the next 12 months.

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Alcan Aluminum (AL.TO)