Agrium (AGU.TO)

He sees resistance at around $51. A lot of indicators are sort of at the upper end. Just because indicators are high doesn't mean that it can't continue higher. It is how it corrects in relation to investors coming in. Chart shows it has just broken through the April high at around $109 with resistance back in January at about $115. The last action has being a pretty quick, sudden move, so there is an expectation that it could come back a few percentage points, maybe to $105-$106.

Huge bumper crop in US in grains this year. Prices in agriculture commodity companies have gone down since they went up in the past due to scares the Chinese would need so much more grains and that global warming would reduce supply. He stays away from this sector.

He is pretty neutral on this particular space. Thinks the US farmer is quite mature at this point, in terms of their spending patterns. We have seen earnings estimates fall a bit and level off somewhat. He would look at other sectors.

(A Top Pick Oct 22/13. Up 9.26%.) Still likes this as a Hold. A little concerned that they have given some profit warnings in the last little while. Very much weather related, but we are still in the retrieval part of the crop year.

Under $100, this is definitely a good Buy. They have been affected by slowing economies and low crop prices have been postponing some purchases. The most diversified of the fertilizer companies in Canada. Dividend yield of 3.54%.

Good company. He prefers Potash (POT-T), which has a little higher yield and is more levered towards potash, where this company is more leveraged towards nitrogen as well as the retail sector in the US.

(A Top Pick Sept 12/13. Up 16.12%.) Had been delivering on the retail side extremely well. Second-quarter had stellar results and margins are improving rapidly. The 1.3 billion EBITDA target they have on retail should be raised in the next few months. Some downside on their wholesale due to operational issues. Still a very good story. Price of corn is an issue and farmers’ income is down this year. There is some uncertainty as to where they are going. Once they go through this final leg of CapX over the next 12 months, free cash flow should increase quite a bit and you should see a good dividend increase.

(A Top Pick Sept 4/13. Up 19.88%.) Still likes this. He is generally a buyer of this when it is under $100. Likes its wholesale and retail diversification within the agriculture industry. Well-managed and geographically diversified.

Has been a bit of a disappointment. Hasn’t really done very much over the last year. Continues to like it over the long term. Likes their strategy of owning the big retail network in Canada and the US. Gives them some stability to their earnings. 3.2% dividend yield.

Likes the agricultural sector. Probably should have bought it a long time ago. Well diversified and well integrated vertically. Well managed. Buy it and put it away.

It is her pick in the Agriculture space. Likes the outlook for this industry. She has a positive long term secular view on the industry. She would continue to hold it. Decent dividend of 3.2%.

(A Top Pick Aug 12/13. Up 15.7%.) Still likes this, but it is a little dicey at the moment. It looks like we are in for a bumper crop, and he is not sure if that means farmers are going to make more money or less, because the price of the individual products is down. He is watching the situation closely.

Everything has happened wrong with the stock. Bad weather, falling nitrogen prices due to China exports, etc. Now you have falling corn prices. Had elevated natural gas prices, but now have lower prices which should help. The bottom line is that farmers are spending only 30% of their budgets on fertilizer, which is the lowest in a decade. He sees the trend normalizing eventually. Sees really big cash flow coming on in 2015, mostly from cost cutting and synergies. Has potential for dividend growth, buybacks as well as a higher share price. This has a very long term secular tailwind of population growth and the need to increase yield per unit of farmland.

No agricultural exposure over the last couple of months. At this point it is not one of those sectors to buy. Not one of the right groups to invest in.

There is a little bit of rolling over going on. On the 1 year chart, the trendline was broken down in March. Buyers are coming in around the $100 area, and that point has been broken. It rallied today up to the neck line. He would like to see if that fails, which it often does, and heads down further. Be cautious right now.