Opinions
Greg Newman
Agrium
AGU-T
TOP PICK
Jul 31, 2014
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.
POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.
These agricultural plays do well to the end of the year. Remember all the farmers are placing orders for the new year. Shipments into the 1st quarter between Oct 3 and Jan16 shares of Agrium have gained 13.29% and been positive in 17 of the past 20 periods. This year, shipments of fertilizers have been dismal. You could argue that weather is to blame. If commodity prices are going to pick up this year, we could see a very good period of seasonal strength. The chart is showing it starting to break out. (Analysts’ price target is $106.10.)
Wasn't impressed with the Potash (POT-T) acquisition. They could have bought it for a lot less. It could be a drag for them right now, because commodity prices are still down. This is a good business in that they are able to generate good operating income, so margins are good. They are only one of 2-3 players in the space.
This has been flat year-over-year. They are merging with Potash (POT-T), so will be able to take some synergies out. Because of the regulators globally, they have to sell about a net amount of $4.5 billion of assets. They’ll probably invest some of those proceeds in the retail part of the business, which is more stable. They’ll also probably buy back shares, as well as increasing dividends in about 3 years. Dividend yield of 3.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $111.20.)
Doesn't think you should get into this right now. He did own it, but when they announced that they were going to integrate with Potash (POT-T), that changed the complexion of the company quite a bit. Doesn't think there will be much in the way of a stock price change until it has been time-tested for a while.
Everything has happened wrong with the stock. Bad weather, falling nitrogen prices due to China exports, etc. Now you have falling corn prices. Had elevated natural gas prices, but now have lower prices which should help. The bottom line is that farmers are spending only 30% of their budgets on fertilizer, which is the lowest in a decade. He sees the trend normalizing eventually. Sees really big cash flow coming on in 2015, mostly from cost cutting and synergies. Has potential for dividend growth, buybacks as well as a higher share price. This has a very long term secular tailwind of population growth and the need to increase yield per unit of farmland.